David BloomI genuinely do not understand why prediction markets are so bullish on Shapiro for VP. I think it makes sense for him to have the highest probability, but bettors seem be attributing waaaay too much significance to being from PA here. https://electionbettingodds.com/DemocratVicePresident_2024.html
How well Kamala vibes with the VP candidate is probably a far more important factor than home state, and there hasn't been any reporting on how that is going at all. I think the markets feel waaaaay too certain about things right now.
...and I just learned that The Guardian is reporting that Harris has narrowed down the search to Shapiro and Walz. The 70%/27% probabilities seem much more reasonable now, although I'm a bit surprised none of the other candidates are trading over 1% (reporting on this kind of thing tends to be pretty unreliable) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/aug/05/kamala-harris-vp-announcement-running-mate-election-updates