Aaron Rupar

New in PN: Kevin Kruse on the Democratic crisis of confidence

"There are two separate issues here. Whether Biden decides to step down has some grounding in reality. But dream scenarios about a dramatic remaking of the party in a month’s time are just ludicrous." https://www.publicnotice.co/p/kevin-kruse-interview-biden-drop-out-convention

Kevin Kruse on the Democratic crisis of confidence

"People who predict a timely, neat process that will energize Democratic voters — I don’t know what fantasy world they’re living in."

Public Notice
Jul 11, 2024 at 12:44pmWeb
Show threadreally? why?Jul 11, 2024

@atrupar fyi in case anyone is reading this, the question should be: is biden fine?

and the answer is biden is fine

Show threadRobert MJul 11, 2024
@atrupar Biden’s poor debate performance had almost no impact on voter preference, new report says https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/07/09/biden-debate-performance-voter-preferences/ #usPolitics #Biden #trump
Biden’s poor debate performance had almost no impact on voter preference, new report says

A new report shows that despite Biden’s debate performance – poor as it may have been – voter preferences haven't been impacted.

Northeastern Global News
Show threadDavid Scott MoyerJul 11, 2024
@atrupar Maybe the notion that Biden stepping down and being replaced by ANY of the other options would help Donald Trump is the ludicrous notion. Who will stay home because Biden is replaced? Who will vote Trump because Biden is replaced? Who will vote third party because Biden is replaced. How will ANY of the other options be an inferior messenger of the Democratic agenda?
Show threadLt.Cpl Хуёвый ПчеловодJul 11, 2024

@farbel @atrupar
Independents are staying home if Biden is replaced
Old-guard Republicans are not splitting ticket if Biden is replaced
Low-info voters are voting Trump if Biden is replaced

Each of one these groups was crucial to Dem victory in 2020

Any new candidate will simply not have enough time to make inroads with these voters

Moreover, Dems are primed for a lot of positive coverage in the next 2mo, would be kinda awkward to fire the guy responsible for 95% of it and take the credit...

Show threadDavid Scott MoyerJul 11, 2024
@hu_logic @atrupar Do you have data supporting those three claims? Polling shows both Kamala and, believe it or not Hillary, beating Trump.
Show threadLt.Cpl Хуёвый ПчеловодJul 11, 2024

@farbel @atrupar Alright, let's play this game. Biden is replaced with Hillary because polls show her beating Trump by 2 points.

MAGA/GOP/MSM go to town digging up garbage on Clintons - everything from pizzagate conspiracies to Epstein logs. Maybe even sprinkle in a few email servers and FBI investigations, just to be sure.

Her polls dip by 5 points mid-August.

Now what?

Moral of the story - it's easy to "beat trump" in polls when you're not the target of a 24/7 smear campaign.

Show threadDavid Scott MoyerJul 11, 2024
@hu_logic @atrupar Oh, believe me, I am not advocating for another Hillary candidacy. Just illustrating that the claims made don't hold water. Kamala, on the other hand, would have access to all the money raised by the Biden/Harris campaign, along with all the work on the ground that has been done. Again, not advocating for anyone, just not willing to blindly say that only Joe can win.
Show threadLt.Cpl Хуёвый ПчеловодJul 11, 2024

@farbel @atrupar At this point only Joe can win. He is the only one with name recognition and a very wide base of support from progressives to republicans.

Sure, Kamala may energize more voters on the left, but she'll struggle with every other demographic. Again, simply because there is no time left for her to make her case and reach the voters.

Can someone else win? Absolutely, but not if they only have 4 months to go before the election.

Show threadDavid Scott MoyerJul 11, 2024
@hu_logic @atrupar OK, Lt. Cpl Bad Beekeeper (Yes, I saw the movie) I have been advised of your opinion. I am keeping an open mind to all scenarios and will work my ass off to make sure P01135809 never again sets foot in the White House. I believe that is doable with Joe or any number of replacements, and I believe you underestimate the intelligence and will of the American electorate.
Show threadLt.Cpl Хуёвый ПчеловодJul 11, 2024

@farbel @atrupar I think polls are significantly understating support for Biden.

Combine that with another shot at the debates, trump sentencing in September, potential Gaza deal and easing of interest rates - I think Biden has a very clear shot at winning this election.

Unless, of course, Biden campaign is forced to talk about hypotheticals instead of actually campaigning.

Show threadDavid Scott MoyerJul 11, 2024
@hu_logic @atrupar I agree with everything you say, provided people are paying more attention to actual events and less to headlines and the 24 hour click bait cycle.
Show threadRobert MJul 11, 2024
@atrupar Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says Dems shouldn't rebel against Biden https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/07/allan-lichtman-democratic-delegates-joe-biden/74320955007/ #usPolitics #Biden #trump
Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says Dems shouldn't rebel against Biden

The comments come as some Democrats have called on Biden to drop out after his rocky debate performance.

USA TODAY
Show threadRobert MJul 11, 2024
@atrupar "Apparently, it’s OK for Trump to spew nonstop nonsense, but Biden can’t ever lose his train of thought. Anyone looking for cognitive decline should tune into a Trump rally." https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/editorials/trump-verbal-miscues-presidential-debate-20240706.html #usPolitics #Biden #trump
The lingering focus on Biden’s shaky debate obscures Trump’s major verbal miscues | Editorial

The president must now convince voters he has the mental acuity to do the toughest job in the world. The same bar does not exist for Trump, who loses no points for incoherence or incompetence.

The Philadelphia Inquirer
Show threadslotrakJul 11, 2024
@atrupar
Every word:
“What has surprised me, though, are these bizarre “West Wing” fantasies that I’ve seen from pundits about a “blitz primary” or contested convention. These seem exciting on paper if you have a thin knowledge of politics, but would be utter chaos if they actually happened.”
Show threadᴚ uɐᗡJul 11, 2024

@atrupar OT but I will never forget that time he did a massive thread of the Trump administration as Bond villains 🤣

I think that was the peak of Twitter.