Kamala Harris surges as top choice to replace Joe Biden: Poll

https://lemmy.world/post/17443046

Kamala Harris surges as top choice to replace Joe Biden: Poll - Lemmy.World

>The poll, which was conducted from July 7 to July 9, found that 73 percent of Democratic voters “somewhat” or “strongly” approve of Harris as Biden’s replacement. In an earlier iteration of the same survey, conducted from July 3 to July 6, a 66 percent majority of Democrats approved of Harris as a replacement.

Reee-publicans worst nightmare
We want Joe!
Report: Trump Campaign Wants Biden to Stay in Race as an Easy Target

One Trump super PAC leader said clips from the debate “would make for devastating campaign commercials.”…

Truthout
We want Joe… to fuck off into the sunset.
Polls also say she would do no better than Joe.
So it won’t matter if she replaces him, right? I mean, if it doesn’t matter who the candidate is with polling, then changing the candidate shouldn’t matter, right? Like, why are we keeping Biden if it doesn’t matter who the candidate is? Theoretically, if it doesn’t make a difference who the nominee is, and it won’t change anything, then changing the nominee shouldn’t be a problem, right?
It more has to with polls. If the electorate is more or less set, then the numbers game turns into a get out the vote campaign. There is no reason to think that the candidate will have an affect on that, unless of course if you’ve already voted for them once
If polling is static for all potential candidates, then what harm can come from changing them? Why fight so hard for a candidate that you know is going to lose, unless you want that candidate to lose? 🤨

First of all - more or less static

Second ‐ it stops being who do you want as President, and who you’ll drag your ass to the polls for.

Current polls don’t answer that

Then you should have no problem changing the candidate, right? Right?
Unless there is a motivating factor of already voting for Biden which weakens GOTV…

We aren’t “keeping” Biden, the primary process was when other people could run against him and we got to pick. Now that he has secured the nomination, only one person on Earth decides if Biden continues to run or not–Biden himself.

Unless he gets impeached and removed from office or something, which is not very likely.

Hell, he even gets immunity for all sorts of possible crimes now, thanks to the Supreme Court.

Democratic donors warn of campaign funds ‘drying up’ as Joe Biden holds on

Donors decide.

Some wealthy backers are increasingly unwilling to pour cash into ‘losing’ effort

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No, all they can do is stop donating. They cannot hold a gun to his head and control his actions.
That’s why you’re seeing a struggle within the party. It’s over, it’s been over, Biden just hasn’t accepted it yet.

Maybe, I don’t know. I was just shooting down that standard DNC conspiracy theory nonsense. “Donors deciding” is just a step away from “Jews run the world”, with the George Soros conspiracy theories being the step in the middle.

Common sense dictates that money does not grant you mind control powers, however, just sway.

Yeah, it’s probably a conspiracy theory, and Citizens United is just the name of a polka band.
Big-money donors have more political influence than the average voter, and more extreme beliefs

In November 2012, newly elected Democratic members of the United States Congress got about a week to savor their victories. Then, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee advised them to start hitting the phones for 3-4 hours per day. Who were they supposed to be calling? Mainly, elite donors—the fewer than 1% of Americans who give candidates more than $200 in any given election cycle.

Phys.org

I am not saying there is not a shitload of money in politics, it is true there is a ton of corporate money in our politics.

However, does the money grant control? Yes or no?

If I give you one billion dollars, you personally, could I then force you to do something you did not want to do? Murder a loved one perhaps? Or resign a presidency you’ve probably wanted your whole life?

Think about specifics, not vague bullshit. Money does not grant control, people retain their free will. It can only help convince. Lobby. Sway. Influence. Not control.

That’s the line between reality and conspiracy theory bullshit.

Money doesn’t give you control over people, it influences decisions.

Why do we pay rent or mortgage? Do the landlords or banks control us, or influence us to pay? Why do cult leaders exists if adherents have “free will?” Are they controlled or manipulated?

If money didn’t influence and control politics, we would have gun regulations, healthcare, and climate reform.

It’s not a conspiracy theory.

Reform Money in Politics

Americans are fed up with the role of big money in political campaigns. The Brennan Center's solution: small donor public financing to put power back in the hands of individuals.

Brennan Center for Justice

There you go, trying to say control and influence are the same thing again, when they are two separate words with distinct meanings.

Why do we really have the system we do? Because only a fraction of Americans are progressive, and far more prefer neo-liberalism for the illusion of freedom it gives. Most voters still consider “the economy” to be the most important issue to them, not any sort of progressive values.

Now, part of this is due to corporate-controlled narratives, but it’s still us exercising our free will. You do not have to pay your landlord, you could trek out into the Alaskan wilderness with a backpack and a tent if you really wanted. Nobody would show up with a gun to stop you.

I’m probably wrong.

But there is one small group of people in America with the power to push Joe Biden out of the race. Who are they? The major donors to the Democratic Party. 

They’re the ones Biden is angry with.

On Monday morning, Biden called into MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” and railed against the big-ticket donors who have been pushing him to withdraw.

“I’m getting so frustrated with the elites … the elites of the party,” he said on the air. “I don’t care what the millionaires think.”

Bingo. It was the first time any modern president has admitted that the elites of the party are the millionaires (and billionaires) who fund it, which gives them extraordinary political power — perhaps enough to push Biden out of the race. 

In truth, the Democratic Party is little more than a national fundraising machine, as is the GOP.

Who exactly is trying to push Biden out?

A lesson in where political power really lies in America

Robert Reich

Yes, that’s called influence, isn’t it, they are exerting pressure and trying to convince him, right? But he hasn’t withdrawn yet, has he? Because ultimately, the one that makes the decision, is him. And he will make it.

If the best you’ve got is some guy’s blog, you’re not doing well. Anyone can make a blog online, and they can put anything protected by the First Amendment on it. You can find a blog saying absolutely anything, and this is probably how you’ve become radicalized into somehow believing in mind control, instead of simply remembering what an Average Middle American sounds like, and how they get what they vote for, resulting after enough decades in our current highly flawed system.

Robert Reich is a Professor, writer, former Secretary of Labor, author of The System, The Common Good, Saving Capitalism, Aftershock, Supercapitalism, The Work of Nations. Co-creator of “Inequality for All” and “Saving Capitalism.” Co-founder of Inequality Media

His Wikipedia. Where’s your Wikipedia?

Excuse me if I trust someone’s opinion that actually served in the United States government instead of a random person on the internet.

Robert Reich - Wikipedia

Credentials are great, but if he’s trying to say that the ultimate choice of whether Biden stays in the race or not is someone aside’s Biden’s to make, then I put him alongside all the credentialed people that support other conspiracy theories. The Trump admin was full of them, and frankly, anyone can become radicalized.

I’m using basic sense to make my argument, even a child should be able to understand what I am saying. No credentials required. You just don’t like it, because what you already believe is convenient and comfortable, even if you probably know it doesn’t completely make sense.

Does money grant control? No. A child knows this.

The lack of coherence is staggering. I wish you the best.
See you around I suppose. Sorry if I’ve troubled you, but I think I make a lot of sense.
This is an incredibly bad position. Saying that donors decide is nothing like saying “Jews run the world”. It’s not a conspiracy theory, it is a recognition that campaign funds are integral to a presidential election. If Biden can’t bring in money then his campaign will fold.

Biden already possesses a huge amount of donor money, and cannot run again in the future. Additionally, Biden gets almost half his money from small donors.

www.opensecrets.org/…/small-donors

Influence gained by donation and control are not the same thing. Influence is real. Control is conspiracy theory bullshit.

Small Donors

OpenSecrets.org coverage of the 2024 Presidential race and candidates

OpenSecrets
Yes but she’s capable of actually campaigning. Expectations have been clear since the debate. If he got right out there and started campaigning immediately, he’d probably be doing fine. It’s becoming clear however that he can’t.
Jesus christ. Can we just stop? Biden’s the nominee. Doesn’t matter who else you could get to run because they’d get crushed. Yes, it’s a terrible position the DNC has put us all in, but that’s just the way it is now.
That would be my opinion too, if I were a Trump voter.

The problem is, you have one side whos worried their candidate might be too old and another who doesn’t even care if their candidate raped a child and tried to overthrow their government.

However, for reasons no one can quite explain, only one of them is being called to drop out of the race.

Biden should make this case, when he’s not napping 💤
MSN

doesn’t even care if their candidate raped a child and tried to overthrow their government

It’s right there. It’s because his voters don’t care. Calls to drop out from a faction Trump calls ‘the enemy of the people’, is a huge waste of time.

However, for reasons no one can quite explain, only one of them is being called to drop out of the race.

No one can explain? He got on a debate stage in front of the entire world and looked like a confused, doddering, and feeble old man. Any party would call for their candidate to step down after that.

As for why Trump doesn’t get the same treatment, it’s because the Republicans are no longer a political party, but have become a cult of MAGA. Hell they have people holding signs that say real men wear diapers.

It would be amazing if Harris, a black woman, beat the shit out of Trump. But how probable is this? I thought Kamala Harris was universally disliked across the board?

It’s less that she’s universally disliked and more that she’s not particularly liked. In her most prominent appearances in the past 4 years, she’s lacked charisma and not taken stances notable enough to distinguish her from the administration. She’s heavily disliked on the left-wing of the Democratic Party for being a DA who laughed about jailing people for drug crimes she herself had committed in the past (possession), and not particularly popular on the right-wing of the Democratic Party because they’re still racist, just LESS racist than Republicans.

She may be the best choice to go with at this junction, but she wouldn’t be my first pick if the field was open. But the field isn’t open, so we make do with what we have.

I do very much like one thing about her. In a race where we need to be hitting Trump very hard on the campaign trail, a former prosecutor should be extremely well-practiced and good at that.

But otherwise I agree.

former prosecutor should be extremely well-practiced and good at that.

Prosecutor vs. convicted felon. Who wins? Watch our brand new reality show!

I bet I know who the party of “Law and Order” will vote for!

And to that end, I think Newsom would be the safest choice for a pivot by far.

  • white
  • male
  • heterosexual
  • somewhat corporate friendly
  • a bit religious, but not too much
  • charismatic + GREAT public speaker

Reasoning:

  • the first three are simply attributes that make it easier to min/max voter responsiveness in a country that still has a lot of prejudices
  • the fourth is so the mega donors don’t just dig in their heels
  • the fifth is so the religiouses don’t just dig in their heels
  • the sixth is generally a good attribute to have in a serious political contender

We’re trying to stop the fascists from winning. Anything else is (unfortunately, but necessarily) secondary at this point. Pragmatic triage of the situation MUST be the mindset with which the party is evaluating their choices.

Of course, the DNC is neither triaging the situation, nor being pragmatic about the candidate who can actually fucking win and stop the fascists, because from where I’m standing, it looks like Biden hasn’t done a great job at any point in his term of slapping down the Nationalist Christians + MAGA crowd (and friends).

If you think about the Democratic parties base, two groups stand out. Lefties (like most people on Lemmy) and people of color, particularly black women. If you select Newsom over Harris you i.) deal an enormous insult to people of color, and ii.) don’t go nearly far enough left to satisfy Lefties. What part of the base would be enthusiastic about such a milquetoast replacement?

The part of the base that doesn’t want fascism (I.e. literally anyone who is sane) would be fine with a pragmatic choice.

Don’t fight all battles all the time. In this situation, it would be a grave strategic mistake to try to tick all the boxes in the face of an imminent fascist threat. Pick the guy who’s not going to offend (regressive-minded) people in flyover states, in the interest of, you know, not letting the fascists win.

I’m not saying those goals aren’t important. I am saying that those goals need to take a backseat for the moment to the goal of “let’s not elect the First American Reichschancellor in November”.

Republicans hate few people in the nation as much as Newsom. They would rally hard against him as the Uber-Liberal boogeyman.

nor being pragmatic about the candidate who can actually fucking win

It’s been a long time, and I don’t remember the exact quote and the entire context, but I remember Trae Crowder (the “liberal redneck”) on Real Time just after donnie was selected by the EC and people were trying to do some kind of post mortem on just how the hell we ended up with donnie.

And Trae Crowder says something like, “…or do you want to fucking WIN?” I remember Ana Marie Cox looking kind of put out by the comment, but IIRC, it was about pragmatism. I’m pretty sure exchanges like that went on, in various forms, all around the country during 2015-2016 and they are playing out again…

If anyone has a link to that full exchange, or to a transcript of it, I sure would appreciate it, by the way.

Oh, and by the way I love the idea of Newsom, for exactly all the reasons you lay out.
Fuck me. Well, we make do with what we have.

Biden can only use his quarter billion in campaign funds for his running mate Kamala. So the only choice is a Biden*/Harris ticket in November. And realistically no matter who anyone would prefer, you’re not going to sell a new candidate before November.

We’ve all in this mess, so now it’s time to grab the Go Joe, and clean it up.

This is simply untrue. He cannot give more than the maximum to another campaign, but he can give the balance to the DNC or a Super PAC to elect a new nominee.

It’s the right sentiment phrased incorrectly. Harris can take over the campaign funds entirely, because it’s the same campaign. Nobody else can do that, so anyone else would have to start campaign fundraising from scratch as the DNC or a PAC they can’t coordinate with has all the money.

Campaigns get a discount on ad spend and there’s a lot of perks with being able to send exactly the message you want to spend. It’s a notable advantage.

I understand what you’re saying, but at the end of the day the campaign is going to put out press releases for what they’re focusing on at that time. While they can’t coordinate, they can just read the press releases that are released to the public and do ad spends based on them.

I think the funds that the primary campaign got do actually go to Harris first. The DNC, PACs, and SPACs should be able to transfer like you said though.

Disclaimer: I’m not sure any of this shit is actually figured out. I doubt they thought about this situation when they wrote the FEC bill.

My reading on the subject, which is far from authoritative obviously, was that Biden can direct the funds anywhere he wants, he has the final say on where they go. Either to Harris’s campaign, a Super PAC, or the DNC.
Yeah, as an anarchist I’m particularly unenthused by “Top Cop” Kamala. I’m also concerned that people haven’t learned the lesson that Americans are extremely fucking racist and misogynistic. I’ll sadly be “voting blue, no matter who” but when the DNC runs these deeply uninspiring candidates, they can’t be surprised at how the low turnout costs them.
But also liberals love trying to prove they are racist.

Cool. So the best alternative is still expected to lose? Maybe it’s time to stop calling for a replacement.

www.realclearpolling.com/polls/…/trump-vs-harris

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

That’s before even a day of campaigning with her at the top of the ticket, I don’t think those numbers are as bad as you think. Trump has been campaigning nonstop for a decade. Unfortunately Harris is not exactly energizing, but I bet she can pick up 2-3 point just by being normal for 4 months.
That’s true. Although it’s just as possible she’ll say the wrong thing and lose points. Some voters on the left are quick to abandon a candidate.