Hard pills to swallow about US elections: You will *never* be able to accurately predict US elections until you accept these facts:
1) The majority of white people in the US will vote for whichever of the two candidates is the most anti-Black. That's usually the GOP option. This has been true since the 1960s.
2) So in order to win, the Dem candidate has to have enthusiastic Black voter support. Without this support, the Dem candidate cannot win.
Knowing that, let's look at these options!🤡
1/N
Biden:
The whole reason we're in this bind, is because Biden has burned through so much of Black US voters' legendary patience, optimism, and good will. I've been telling y'all for months exactly how he burned this, what Black voters, particularly men, were rightfully upset about, and that this was dangerous and could lead to a Trump victory if we didn't change course. People just yelled "Trump is worse!" And "Those Black dudes will come around! They have to!" at me, before blocking me.
2/N
Harris:
In the same boat as Biden. Same admin.
Buttigieg:
Black folk, in particular, Black men, see "mayor Pete" very differently than white folk. Black men remember that he fired the Black police chief that was reforming South Bend, for catching his own out of control racist cops making vile racist comments. Most white voters don't remember / never knew this story.
Booker:
Tepid criminal justice reform initiatives. Not a super strong negative, but not inspiring.
3/N
Newsom:
Black voters like Gavin Newsom. He was the 1st governor to sign the college athletics Name, Images and Likeness law, the tipping point for ending billions in Black exploitation. Newsom has the support. He just needs to not mess that up between now and 2028. Dangers for this are: War on Drugs, Homeless, Education
Whitmer:
Black voters love Gretchen Whitmer. She has a nickname (Big Gretch) and several (bad!) rap songs about her. She just needs to not mess that up between now and 2028
4/N
Klobuchar:
Black voters, especially Black men, cannot stand Amy Klobuchar. Derek Chauvin killed George Floyd. Other cops just watched him do it. He'd killed people before without other cops interfering. Why didn't other cops interfere? Because they were afraid of him. Why were they afraid of him? Because even when cops had reported him in the past, he would never get in trouble, because the DA *always* refused to charge him. Now you've made a psycho murderer coworker mad at you😬 Who was the DA?
This thread is not an endorsement of any candidate, or an exhaustive treatise on all of their policy positions. It's also not an indicator of who I'm voting for, or if Biden should step down, or anything silly like that.
This is sharing some cold facts that lots of white folk don't want to accept, and sharing information that so called "low information voters," (AKA Black people), have, that white voters don't have.
The "low information voters" know what you know! And things you don't know.
@mekkaokereke you know who knows all of this? The Biden campaign.
That's why he's not dropping out. That's why he says he's the best chance to beat Trump. Because he is.
If Biden loses in November it wont be because of the black vote. It wont be because Biden is too old.
It will be because white suburban women voted overwhelmingly and intentionally *for* a rapist, con-artist, felon.
Because they think that rapist will protect them from all the scary blacks and browns hiding in their bushes.
@tob What about all the White men voting for Trump? White men will blame anyone but themselves for patriarchal White supremacy!!!! A lot of those White women are doing what their White husbands are telling them to do because that's how patriarchy works. (Not all, of course, some are leaders not followers or out perform their husbands, but it's all pretty much to get some sort of attention and power in a system that's economically, politically and socially biased towards White men.) So, really, stop blaming White women when even more White men vote Republican/Trump.
I'm not saying this to let White women off the hook for their own actions, I'm saying this because White men really need to stop blaming everyone else and start taking responsibility for the things White men do for the benefit of White men in a patriarchal system, which is what we still live in (we're not in a post-racial or post-sexism society, the sooner men who mean well internalize this fact, the sooner they'll be able to start doing better and seeing the fight we're in more clearly).
https://cawp.rutgers.edu/gender-gap-voting-choices-presidential-elections
A gender gap in voting refers to a difference between the percentage of women and the percentage of men voting for a given candidate, generally the winning candidate. Even when women and men favor the same candidate, they may do so by different margins, resulting in a gender gap. In every presidential election since 1980, a gender gap has been apparent, with a greater proportion of women than men preferring the Democrat in each case. The magnitude of the gender gap has ranged in size from four to twelve points since 1980.
@mfennvt @fifilamoura @mekkaokereke Yes. Both groups are entirely culpable.
But there's reason to suspect that while white men are enthusiastically sticking with the rapist, white women are less enthused.
I expect Biden's messaging when the campaign starts to be laser-focused on the issues that matter to white suburban women.
And yes, that means "tough on immigration" and "pro-genocide in Israel" because many white suburban women are racist.
@fifilamoura @mekkaokereke Oh, sorry. Yes. Of course. The white men are also voting for the rapist, con-artists, felon.
I'm not making a judgement about the people voting (in this thread).
I'm simply talking about the political algebra that makes this election a fight for the votes of white suburban women.
If Biden ties or wins white women in November he wins this election in a landslide. And nothing else anyone does, says, or stutters matters.
@mekkaokereke
Chiming in to the replies (sorry) to put the spotlight on that observation that “low information voter” is a racially coded phrase. Super important.
We white people probably don’t do a great job of picturing what exactly that 17% of the population who think Biden ended Roe actually looks like.
@shacker @inthehands It's the same self-supremacy that's been racially coded all along, & has lingering systemic supports. As long as we keep saying things like, "White people, too," we're refusing to engage in the conversations pointed at eliminating the built barriers that still have inordinately racial implications.
I'm personally running with, "Poor people deserve better." Then I'm targeting the (yeh, white) wealth that gatekeeps education, earning potential, and access to effectiveness.
mekka okereke 
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