Does this count as a world war yet?

My bets have been on Taiwan being the flashpoint for well over a year now. Standing firm.

And my bet is and has been “before Christmas of 2024.”

I thought about that for a long time, and, honestly, it seems that Russia may have stolen China’s thunder there by invading Ukraine. As a result, the whole world (mostly) super-hates and has united against Russia with untold billions of weapons and aid to Ukraine.

What’s China to think of their Taiwan plan, now? Well, I think it’s obvious by watching what they’re doing, what they’ve been doing.

Although they’ve become more aggressive in the South China Sea, what with building all their fake islands and atolls in order to claim some sovereignty to the waters. But most of what they’re doing merely amounts to harassment and bullying of surrounding nations. And while there’s been a good amount of somewhat-incendiary talk re: China’s intentions towards Taiwan, they’ve actually done very little to accomplish that goal, as of late. They’re being careful, weighing their options, and proceeding slowly but surely.

Will Taiwan become the next place invaded? A new flashpoint? I don’t think so, or, at least, not for a while. The Ukraine War, Russia’s almost-collapsed economy, and their need for aid of all kinds has put China into an uncomfortable position, and they seem to be reprioritizing.

If China makes any serious move against Taiwan, IMO, it will be a while from now.

Idk. We’ve choked China out of AI supremacy. All of our mega GDP makers rely heavily on TSMC. Heavily.

I mean, entirely.

Like Biden throwing billions at chip manufacturers. Tensions in the South China Sea are ridiculous. The stakes have never been higher, and it’s right in what they see as their back yard. Taking down TSMC cripples the US economy, causes a worldwide kerfuffle (especially with tensions from Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Palestine, Israel/Iran, US/Israel, US/Ukraine, US/Iran relationships.

I get what you mean that you’ve been thinking that for a decade. Ive been seeing it for as long. But it’s gotten real with the AI bubble. If it doesn’t burst before 2030, there’s no way China doesn’t act. Frankly, I’m betting on less than 6 months.

All of China’s actions that you have described icy as a dissipation of the united effort against Taiwan. Like I said, I’m not saying it won’t happen, I’m just saying it won’t happen really soon. China actually gives a huge shit about their international reputation. And they don’t want to that damaged fighting a war they can’t win. They will wait to move on Taiwan until they can be reasonably assured of a victory. And that won’t happen anytime soon.

Id put money on it happening before 2031. Like lots of money.

But Xi outright told Biden he and to invade Taiwan. This year. Verbatim.

2031? Maybe. If the Ukraine war ends soon, it would give them a couple of years before they started up their bullshit. So, yeah, maybe.

But the stuff with AI it’s not some thing they could win with their military. Not even by taking over Taiwan (which I’m not convinced they can). Economic pressure that they can weild certainly would be more likely to help them achieve their goals. It just takes a lot longer.

I put a hard barrier past 2030 because of the China Reunification thing. It’s a big thing for Xi. If he doesn’t attempt he’ll look like a no-balls fearful leader, or something. Idk.

And I say 2024 because he balls’d up around Xmas 202e and said, as I mentioned, verbatim, “We will invade Taiwan this (next) year”

You’re not wrong in your reasoning, I’m just more reserved in my speculation.

I guess we’ll just have to wait and see

Agreed and same toward you. Apologies if I came off as dismissive.

I think we felt the same in probably 2022. I think the recent tech supremacy racez and the weird things like the US ordering Apple closing up shop in China, ordering all US companies to not sell them the good stuff, and the efforts to separate specifically Chinese nationals from US higher education programs that delve into high end tecj stuff is… Telling. And then… Shit like this?!

I won’t ignore the possibility of propaganda creating the divergence in where we probably agreed 2 years ago and where I am now. But I feel there’s enough economic proof and to me, historically it’s always seemed like money talks.

But I digress. Agree to disagree. I’ll be happy if I’m wrong lol.

It nice to be able to have a discussion where both people disagree politely.

Thanks for the pleasure!

Most welcome, and you the same!

I’ve been looking at it through the lens of this obscure joke from David Cross standup back in like 2003. Sad how relevant so e of it still is. Highly recommend the whole special. It’s aged great.