uathachasJun 3, 2024
@Gina @PatrickOBeirne @ElizabethHilliardSoprano Ní thuigim cén fáth go róghnófa éinne ón eite dheis? Nó ón rialtas? Cén fáth nach ndéanann tú 1, 2, 3, 4 don eite chlé agus stop ansin? Tuigim, go teoiriciúil b'fhéidir go gceapfadh duine éinne go raibh Justin Barrett beagáinín níos measa ná Derek Blighe mar shampla, ach má tá ceachtar acu tofa táimid focáilte ar fad.
Show threadPatrick O'BeirneJun 3, 2024
@uathachas @Gina @ElizabethHilliardSoprano
AFAIK if none of your 4 preferences get elected , especially if they are all new
, then you're losing a vote and letting other people choose rather than expressing increasing levels of distaste as they move down. But this stuff is complicated.
Show threaduathachasJun 3, 2024
@PatrickOBeirne @Gina @ElizabethHilliardSoprano Tuigim sin agus tá an ceart agat. Ach b'fhearr liom gan vótáil ar chor ar bith ná vóta a chaitheamh ar son naitsíoch.
Show threadPatrick O'BeirneJun 3, 2024
@uathachas
In the event of no choice except bad choices, protest against the entire election may be the only recourse.
Fortunately we're not in that state. Think of your #8 not as voting for one you detest , but as reducing the chances for one you detest even more.
Show threadGerard Cunningham ✒️Jun 3, 2024
@PatrickOBeirne @uathachas Keep voting until they're all awful. And bad as some of them will be, keep going as long as there is someone you absolutely need to vote against/deny a vote.
Show threadPatrick O'BeirneJun 3, 2024
@faduda @uathachas
Although for a 5 seater with only nine candidates, it would be impossible to choose 7 none of whom would be elected. So if you vote for five of the nine, one of them would HAVE to be elected. The worst outcome would be to vote for 4 candidates all of whom lose, any more than 4 votes and one has to be successful. Any #psephologists here? Or ask any tally counter, they can do it in their head.
Show threadGerard Cunningham ✒️Jun 4, 2024
@PatrickOBeirne @uathachas I'd say vote for any candidate who is in any way acceptable (or less unpalatable than the fash).
Even after one of your choices makes it over the line, their surplus vote can still be used against a deplorable.
Show threadPatrick O'BeirneJun 4, 2024
@faduda 👍 @uathachas
Oh yes I had forgotten the value of the distribution of surplus.
This was useful.
Show threadNickJun 4, 2024

@PatrickOBeirne

Trouble is, AIUI, the selection of ballots to transfer from over-quota candidates is random.

So if the quota is, say, 900 and that candidate gets 1000, 100 ballot papers are chosen at random to transfer to their second preference.

So if you gave that candidate your first preference, the chance of your second preference vote being use is only 10%.

Of course all of the second preferences could be counted, then multiplied by the over-quota fraction. But I don't think that's the way it's done.

@faduda @uathachas

Show threadGerard Cunningham ✒️
@ratcatcher @PatrickOBeirne @uathachas
In Northern Ireland they count all of the surplus and distribute by ratio. In the south, they do sampling.
Jun 4, 2024 at 3:35pmWeb