I keep hearing people say AI generated text "will get better” as if that’s a known, accepted fact.

But it's not a known, accepted fact. Massive language model AI text generators have been around for YEARS, and they've always been this bad, this prone to lying, this full of shit. We’re just getting it shoved in our faces now.

“It will get better” is a bet, not a statement of fact, and I bet against it.

@fraying they won't get better, because the underlying theory is bad. Without an underlying theory of mind and experience of the objective world, speech is just sounds. They can be pretty, like Abba singing phonetically, but there is no inherent meaning.
@fraying children learn sounds first. Every adult male is "daddy", every animal is a "kitty". Kids have to learn the meaning behind the sounds. LLMs have no way to do that.