We not only have to stop ignoring the problem, we need to be absolutely clear about what the problem is.

LLMs don’t hallucinate wrong answers. They hallucinate all answers. Some of those answers will happen to be right.

If this sounds like nitpicking or quibbling over verbiage, it’s not. This is really, really important to understand. LLMs exist within a hallucinatory false reality. They do not have any comprehension of the truth or untruth of what they are saying, and this means that when they say things that are true, they do not understand why those things are true.

That is the part that’s crucial to understand. A really simple test of this problem is to ask ChatGPT to back up an answer with sources. It fundamentally cannot do it, because it has no ability to actually comprehend and correlate factual information in that way. This means, for example, that AI is incapable of assessing the potential veracity of the information it gives you. A human can say “That’s a little outside of my area of expertise,” but an LLM cannot. It can only be coded with hard blocks in response to certain keywords to cut it from answering and insert a stock response.

This distinction, that AI is always hallucinating, is important because of stuff like this:

But notice how Reid said there was a balance? That’s because a lot of AI researchers don’t actually think hallucinations can be solved. A study out of the National University of Singapore suggested that hallucinations are an inevitable outcome of all large language models. **Just as no person is 100 percent right all the time, neither are these computers. **

That is some fucking toxic shit right there. Treating the fallibility of LLMs as analogous to the fallibility of humans is a huge, huge false equivalence. Humans can be wrong, but we’re wrong in ways that allow us the capacity to grow and learn. Even when we are wrong about things, we can often learn from how we are wrong. There’s a structure to how humans learn and process information that allows us to interrogate our failures and adjust for them.

When an LLM is wrong, we just have to force it to keep rolling the dice until it’s right. It cannot explain its reasoning. It cannot provide proof of work. I work in a field where I often have to direct the efforts of people who know more about specific subjects than I do, and part of how you do that is you get people to explain their reasoning, and you go back and forth testing propositions and arguments with them. You say “I want this, what are the specific challenges involved in doing it?” They tell you it’s really hard, you ask them why. They break things down for you, and together you find solutions. With an LLM, if you ask it why something works the way it does, it will commit to the bit and proceed to hallucinate false facts and false premises to support its false answer, because it’s not operating in the same reality you are, nor does it have any conception of reality in the first place.

Well stated and explained. I’m not an AI researcher but I develop with LLMs quite a lot right now.

Hallucination is a huge problem we face when we’re trying to use LLMs for non-fiction. It’s a little bit like having a friend who can lie straight-faced and convincingly. You cannot distinguish whether they are telling you the truth or they’re lying until you rely on the output.

I think one of the nearest solutions to this may be the addition of extra layers or observer engines that are very deterministic and trained on only extremely reputable sources, perhaps only peer reviewed trade journals, for example, or sources we deem trustworthy. Unfortunately this could only serve to improve our confidence in the facts, not remove hallucination entirely.

It’s even feasible that we could have multiple observers with different domains of expertise (i.e. training sources) and voting capability to fact check and subjectively rate the LLMs output trustworthiness.

But all this will accomplish short term is to perhaps roll the dice in our favor a bit more often.

The perceived results from the end users however may significantly improve. Consider some human examples: sometimes people disagree with their doctor so they go see another doctor and another until they get the answer they want. Sometimes two very experienced lawyers both look at the facts and disagree.

The system that prevents me from knowingly stating something as true, despite not knowing, without some ability to back up my claims is my reputation and my personal values and ethics. LLMs can only pretend to have those traits when we tell them to.