Mastodawn

Baseball Handbook May 10, 2024

This thread will attempt to describe how the simulator works in this data model. A random game between TOR and PHI on 5/8/2024 was chosen. The Details view of this game can be seen here: https://baseball-handbook.com/index.php?game=202405080_TOR_PHI

TC integers ( als,alr,hls,hlr ) were 0,0,2,2. The simulator pulls data from a dataset of ~60K games divided into 13 buckets. Each bucket contains data for lineup/starter and lineup/relief pairs for home and away which the simulator draws from to determine Win%.

1/n

#usermanual

Game 202405080 TOR PHI

Summary of handicapping and results for game between Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies on 2024-05-08

Show thread

Baseball Handbook May 10, 2024

TC bucket +1 to +6 means the lineup is stronger than opposing pitcher. From -1 to -6 the opposing starter is better than the lineup and TC=0 means they're about even steven in strength.

Attached shows the Expected Value table for this game, the only table type on this site with > 8 columns. Vegas column is current break even probability, the next three columns show 3 different Win% output based upon a 0,0,2,2 TC integer input. Explanation next ... running out of text ... 2/

Show thread

Baseball Handbook

Each TC bucket contains a set of Away Lineups/Home starter and Home Lineup/Away Starter pairs as shown in attached image. HAP means Home/Away Player where the simulator only draws from home or away. Neutral it draws from both Home and Away pink sets. The HAWAA column will be covered later.

Ditto for Relief.

For lineup -> starter pairs the dataset returns number of runs/outs made from a real historical baseball game. Better than lineup pitchers will throw more innings giving up less runs. 3/

Show thread

Baseball Handbook May 10, 2024

In our TOR/PHI game example the Home Lineup/Away Starter (hls) was +2. Home Phillies had a much better lineup than away starter Chris Bassitt for TOR.

Attached is a game on 5/10/2023 that could be sampled at random in the TC=+2 set for lineup -> starter. Kyle Muller gives up 6 ER on 4 IP. The next 5 innings would be calculated using the +2 Relief TC for this lineup.

Wins/losses are tabulated one million times to determine a Win percentage. 4/

https://baseball-handbook.com/index.php?game=202305100_OAK_NYA

Game 202305100 OAK NYA

Summary of handicapping and results for game between Oakland Athletics and New York Yankees on 2023-05-10