Alternative analysis: are we witnessing the peak of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ military prowess in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ?

Many both pro ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ and pro ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ commentators are either sounding the alarm or celebrating about the state of the war in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, and for good reason. Perhaps, however, we shouldnโ€™t yet stick a fork in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 1/X

Itโ€™s not hard to find bad signs: manpower and ammunition shortages have lead to a situation where, to be frank, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ has been having trouble stopping ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ from advancing anywhere . ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is establishing logistics hubs and LOC with impunity throughout occupied ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 2/X
Some of the most pessimistic voices have even thrown out terms like ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ is โ€œcircling the drainโ€, painting the picture of a lost cause where even Ukrainians themselves donโ€™t want to fight anymore and ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ leadership is too incompetent to turn the tide anyway 3/X
The outcome in this analysis is but a forgone conclusion, weโ€™re now just going through the motions. Anything else-the oil strikes, ATACMS, etc is just cope to distract from ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ being hammered at the front 4/X
On the one hand, I am not here to cheerlead nor to sugar coat: the situation is definitely bad. Canโ€™t just point to ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ only advancing a small distance and ignore everything else. Thereโ€™s also plenty of blame to go around, not here to only focus on one party to blame 5/X
However, on the other hand I donโ€™t think itโ€™s quite time to count ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ out, and it is possible we are seeing the best ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ will ever do-from here on out it could be diminishing returns for them. 6/X
However, on the other hand I donโ€™t think itโ€™s quite time to count ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ out, and it is possible we are seeing the best ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ will ever do-from here on out it could be diminishing returns for them. 6/X
Whether you want to point to failures to send weapons, failures to mobilize, poor tactics, w/e, the bottom line is ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has enjoyed an obscenly disproportionate advantage in manpower and material since the end of 2023 to today, 12/1 artillery fire ratio some places 7/X
A confluence of factors, from ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ (finally) mobilizing, to the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ aid package, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ artillery initiative, various bilateral agreements and even domestic production all threaten ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ with evening out the aforementioned imbalance in the medium term 8/X
This is not even to mention the new long range strike capabilities, potentially at scale (weโ€™ll come back to this) that the ATACMS and armaments F-16 can launch provide ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ now/coming down the pike 9/X
While this aid is arriving and mobilization efforts commence, there is right now still a clear window for ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ to exploit. However, it must be said that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ does not have a good track record at advancing under more balanced material conditions, let alone with ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ local advantage 10/X
We can therefore imagine a limit to how much ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ can gain from the lost half year. But what of the fact that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ cannot hope to match ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ shell for shell, person for person? 11/X
This is where the question of western commitment comes into play. The west (with a little help from friends like ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท) have the capacity to completely obliterate the advantages ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has. That it has not yet done so doesnโ€™t mean it canโ€™t 12/X
A fair amount of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ dooming has focused on the idea that western countries, especially ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ under a Trump win, will abandon ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ. But what if they donโ€™t? 13/X
I will not engage partisan politics in this thread, I have my preferences and they donโ€™t matter here. But as ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ republicans will remind you, itโ€™s not like every move made under the first Trump presidency was beneficial to ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ. Itโ€™s not a guarantee that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ would abandon ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 14/X
And across the Atlantic, we have Macron recently stating that he would not rule out direct ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท regulars being sent to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ. There was no elaboration on what that would mean, of course, but if western troops arriving isnโ€™t off the table, a lot can be imagined 15/X
We have to remember that despite the often very frustrating (to many of us) self-deterrence places like Washington and Berlin put on responding to ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ, the fundamental fact is it is very much not in the westโ€™s interest to let ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ run roughshot 16/X
So when push comes to shove, instead of letting Kyiv fall, perhaps suddenly ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท, ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช, ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ troops remember itโ€™s actually better not to wait until the enemy is at the gate to stop them, and instead of giving into nuke blackmail, ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท reminds ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ of its first strike doctrine 17/X
Even barring this hypothetical on the extreme end, the west could tip the material scale on balance in favor of Ukraine. Enough F-16 with ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ providing its long ranged air launched munitions at scale, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ etc artillery at scale, among other factors could do the trick 18/X
And letโ€™s also not pretend that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has nothing but brilliant tacticians, endless patriotic manpower lusting to die for conquest (why the mercenaries then?), and inexhaustible money and material. Nor are they likely to unlock new categories of capability. They win with mass 19/X
Which is what has allowed their success over the past half year and why in the short term they are still likely to see gains. But I think itโ€™s quite possible that this will not last but instead diminish. 20/X
This thread might age like wine or like milk, but, ยฏ\_(ใƒ„)_/ยฏ. Itโ€™s an alternative analysis. The problem of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ aggression is not going away. Hopefully it can be dealt with sooner, in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, rather than later, in Berlin. 21/end
Addendum: I forgot to cover that it was always possible ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ could suddenly learn how to target ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ logistics properly as OSINTers have (correctly) been screaming about for a while