Reminder for folks unfamiliar with the geography of Israel: Tel Aviv is on the Mediterranean coast, to reach Tel Aviv the Iranian drones and missiles would first have to cross the entire width of Israel without being intercepted. AFTER crossing the width of Iraq, most of Jordan, and possibly cutting across Saudi Arabia.

This is basically "people in New York not taking shelter immediately after China launches a cruise missile attack from the Pacific."
https://press.coop/@BBCWorld/112266697875777571

BBC News (World) :press: (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image Watch: Tel Aviv residents unfazed by Iran attack threat People were seen drinking in the streets of Tel Aviv despite Iran confirming a drone launch. #press https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68808424?utm_source=press.coop

press.coop
@cstross 90x distance difference.
@oddhack Not that far off in practical terms, especially if you start the timer from when Iran announced the drone strike to when they would have crossed the Israeli border (after a few hours in flight).
@cstross I don't think 5 minutes flight time difference would affect my risk assessment under the circumstances. Russia is striking Lviv on a regular basis with similar weapons, and that's about as far away from the front lines in Ukraine as you can get.
@cstross @oddhack Iran is closer to France than New York is to the Pacific.
@cstross Sorry, but "the entire width of Israel" at the latitude of Tel Aviv is about the length of Manhattan - even if you count the West Bank, it's the distance between San Francisco and San Jose. Don't you think that makes a bit of a difference?

@StephanSchulz First they have to cross Iraq and Jordan, which is a *bit* wider.

Also, if the drones were Shahed-136s (as announced) they max out at 115 mph. So about 25 minutes flight time. Plenty of time to finish a drink and stroll to the nearest shelter!

@cstross @StephanSchulz Also Iraq has the US airforce, Jordan has the Royal Jordanian Air Force, and the IAF also was not waiting at the border, they hunted drones above Jordan and Syria, and ballistic missiles in space.
@cstross Well, for one, Iran apparently also fired ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, which are a wee bit faster. And if one is familiar with the geography of Israel, it's pretty clear that location _within_ Israel does not make much of a difference. It's a small and in particular a narrow country.
@cstross Part of that is also just Israelis being Israelis. That said, I don't really pay much attention to @BBCWorld news coverage anymore.
@paul @cstross @BBCWorld Most Israelis took shelter (according to my Israeli friend who went through this the other day). People in Tel Aviv are a different breed however.
@cstross ...and the shortest distance from New York to the Pacific (or vice versa) is about 4 times the distance from the Iranian border to anywhere in Israel...

@cstross As you certainly know, there's a huge difference between cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, of which more than a hundred were fired as well.

Not sure about you, but I don't think I'd be feeling very secure in such circumstances. But I guess we all risk finding it out in a few more years.

@cstross Jordan and Iraq offer some defensive depth, but Israel itself has none. The width of Israel at the location of Tel Aviv is about 45s of flight time for a ballistic missile.

The main explanation is IMHO that a lot of people are just completely used to the situation and therefore disregard the danger.

A lot of them rightly assumed that Iran would fire just “for the honor of the flag.”

Quote: “Some commanders could simply not stomach the thought of surrendering without even firing one shot, offering some resistance, no matter how token. These captains would fire one broadside – carefully aimed to miss – and then quickly haul down their flags (indicating surrender). Often the broadside would be fired by the guns on the disengaged side, away from the enemy. But always they would miss. Actually hitting the ship you were surrendering to invited a devastating response.”

Source: https://ricochet.com/711428/pour-lhonneur-le-pavillon/

Pour l’Honneur le Pavillon: Honor and Warning Shots for Iran

Back in the age of fighting sail (a topic I enjoy writing of), occasions would occur where one warship was totally overmatched by an opponent. A sloop-of-war carrying twelve guns and capable of firing…

Ricochet
@masek @cstross
Frankly was scared yesterday. Didn't get a lot of sleep on account of the noise unrecognizable jet engines in the sky.
These guys in the video are just young and cocky. I was making jokes about Trisolarians to cope.

@cstross I spent part of the '85 summer in Tel Aviv with a friend's mother who moved there from America in the late 70s.

She told of the '82 invasion of Lebanon. She knocked on a neighbor's door and asked what she should do, since it was the first major military operation since she'd arrived. The neighbor replied, "Lebanon? That's like 2 hours from here" and closed the door.