Augie RayMar 31, 2024
One of the health experts I follow is Dr. Sean Mullen. He is an Associate Professor within the Kinesiology & Community Health Department at the University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign. He has a frightening but thoughtful #COVID19 message worth reading today on Twitter:
Show threadCubeOfCheeseMar 31, 2024
@augieray I can't tell if this is a hypothetical to prove a point or if it's reflective of Covid's statistical effects. It seems like the former
Show threadAugie RayMar 31, 2024
@cubeofcheese I don't think it's fully one or the other. He says to set aside COVID (so it's hypothetical), but he is guesstimating the impact of repeated COVID infections (based on the StatCan data, as far as I can tell.)
Show threadsabik

@augieray @cubeofcheese
Could also be from a 10-20% per-infection rate, as reported for children in the recent review article; extrapolating that to 4 infections gives 34-59% (very roughly!)

Or it's based on the colloquial ⅙

That's assuming each infection is an independent risk, which is quite a big assumption, but also consistent with what data we do have (albeit mostly for adults)

Apr 1, 2024 at 8:45amWeb
Show threadsabikApr 1, 2024
@augieray @cubeofcheese
The one number I can't find a basis for is "10× over the course of K-12"; I thought it was double that, but I can't find a good number anywhere