GiddyGapTrump is winning big with his base, but there’s no sign that he's broadening support
jordanlundHe doesn’t have to broaden support to win. Biden just has to lose support.
In 2020, Biden won 81,283,501 to 74,223,975.
But the popular vote doesn’t count.
What put him over the top were:
Georgia - 2,473,633 to 2,461,854 = 11,779 votes.
Pennsylvania - 3,459,923 to 3,378,263 = 81,660
Michigan - 2,804,040 to 2,649,852 = 154,188
Wisconsin - 1,630,866 to 1,610,184 = 20,682
Arizona - 1,672,143 to 1,661,686 = 10,457
Biden didn’t win by 7,059,526 votes. All those extra votes in places like California and New York didn’t count.
He won by 278,766 votes in 5 key states. That’s it.
Now, since we aren’t pushing hard on vote by mail this year, how many voters do you think will disengage and not vote?
All true. In the US, you don’t have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he’s not doing it nationally, chances are he’s not doing it in the battlegrounds.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
I sense there are a lot of young progressives screaming about “genocide” in Gaza who are going to sit it out, not able to grasp the big picture.
Scare quotes around genocide? Really?
It’s questionable whether what is happening in Gaza is genocide from a legal perspective. Regardless, being concerned with Gaza but sitting out this election and not voting is asinine. Biden may not being doing enough to help stop the humanitarian crisis and him in office may not save any lives in Gaza, but I can guarantee Trump in office will get more people killed. Trump will happily use US military resources to flatten Gaza, and brag about it. Claims that Biden is facilitating or supporting genocide in Gaza ultimately benefits Trump and will doom the Gazan Palestinians if Trump gets in office.
questionable whether what is happening in Gaza is genocide from a legal perspective
Firstly, no it isn’t. Secondly, resorting to “a legal perspective” so that you can choose the specific definition that makes it technically kinda not qualify if you squint hard enough is a really shitty, bad faith debate tactic. The stated wishes and goals of average, mainstream Israelis is to kill all Palestinians, burn Gaza to the ground, and take it over. That’s genocide, plain and simple.
I’m not a legal expert and I doubt you are as well, but if you search the 'net there are plenty of articles from respectable news sources covering debates and discussions over whether it’s legally genocide or not. I’m not going to debate it with you; I’ll leave it up to those who are qualified to determine if it is truly genocide, and pursue war crimes charges as necessary. I never said it was morally correct what Israel is doing. The morality or lack thereof of their actions is separate from the legal definition of genocide. Furthermore, and quite ironically, the 1988 Hamas Charter specifically states as a goal to obliterate Israel in language that rhymes with genocide. While it certainly doesn’t justify what Israel is doing right now, Hamas would be doing the same to Israel right now if it was within their capabilities. Israel could have taken over Gaza long ago, if it really wanted to do it. What’s going on right now in Gaza is the result of Hamas launching an offensive with no strategic or worthy goals, against an enemy they knew they had no chance of winning against. It’s a pretty good assumption that some portion of the cries of genocide are the result of foreign propaganda to both garner support for Hamas and the continuing disruption and outside influence of US politics.
not a legal expert and I doubt you are as well, but if you search the 'net there are plenty of articles from respectable news sources covering debates and discussions over whether it’s legally genocide or not. I’m not going to debate it with you; I’ll leave it up to those who are qualified to determine if it is truly genocide, and pursue war crimes charges as necessary. I
That’s exactly my point. The “legal definition”, if for some reason it doesn’t apply, is just an excuse to avoid confronting the atrocities we are complicit in committing. If the “legal definition” isn’t met, then it’s simply wrong. Some court case isn’t what determines whether it’s “truly genocide”, it’s that Israel, with our support, is and has been trying for decades to eradicate an entire people and culture.
a pretty good assumption that some portion of the cries of genocide are the result of foreign propaganda to both garner support for Hamas and the continuing disruption and outside influence of US politics.
I do agree with this, and it’s really unfortunate. But yeah, if I was Hamas I would use the fact that Gazans are being genocided to drum up support too, it’s a pretty good argument. To avoid creating a situation where Hamas looks like the good guys, I think the best thing to do would be to, you know, stop murdering Palestinian children.
The “legal definition”, if for some reason it doesn’t apply, is just an excuse to avoid confronting the atrocities we are complicit in committing. If the “legal definition” isn’t met, then it’s simply wrong. Some court case isn’t what determines whether it’s “truly genocide”, it’s that Israel, with our support, is and has been trying for decades to eradicate an entire people and culture.
I don’t think proving actual genocide is a prerequisite or requirement for bringing war crimes charges and holding people accountable. For example, if in war a military unit/leader/solider executes a group of unarmed civilians, it can be pursued as a war crime as it’s intentionally targeting and harming civilians, but executing one group of civilians in this fashion isn’t genocide, even if they were a specific race, religious sect, etc. Undoubtedly if there was a pattern of this occurring and there was provable support from leadership, it would be considered genocide. Genocide, like other terms like suicide, homicide, germicide, etc., has a specific meaning. Morality is much more subjective, and hence I’d call Israel’s action quite immoral. Israel may indeed want to eradicate Gaza as a territory or political unit, however that doesn’t mean it’s genocide. Otherwise we could call Russia’s desire to eradicate or annex Ukraine genocide. And after I write all this, I realize I’m debating the meaning of genocide. But I digress.
a pretty good assumption that some portion of the cries of genocide are the result of foreign propaganda to both garner support for Hamas and the continuing disruption and outside influence of US politics.
I do agree with this, and it’s really unfortunate. But yeah, if I was Hamas I would use the fact that Gazans are being genocided to drum up support too, it’s a pretty good argument. To avoid creating a situation where Hamas looks like the good guys, I think the best thing to do would be to, you know, stop murdering Palestinian children.
On all this we can agree. I don’t want innocent civilians killed, either. I take issue with the term genocide and the way it’s being used, especially in the context of the US supposedly “promoting or supporting” genocide. That’s simply not true. It’s a complicated landscape and as we’ve been discussing this I see there is a ceasefire being pursued diplomatically by the Biden administration. I think the way the term genocide is being used here and elsewhere cheapens it and compromises the severity and seriousness of the term.