This essay from @jenniferplusplus is very good, and very important.

It’s good enough and important enough that I’m just going to QFT the heck out of it here on Mastodon until I annoy you into readying the whole thing.

https://jenniferplusplus.com/losing-the-imitation-game/

This essay isn’t the last word on AI in software — but what it says is the ground level for having any sort of coherent discussion about the topic that isn’t all hype and panic.

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Losing the imitation game

AI cannot develop software for you, but that's not going to stop people from trying to make it happen anyway. And that is going to turn all of the easy software development problems into hard problems.

Jennifer++

@inthehands @jenniferplusplus

Agree with the main point "non-trivial" is doing a fair bit of work here. For simple tasks, ChatGPT does a great job of turning conceptual sketches into code. That's already increasing programmer productivity and making basic coding accessible to non-programmers

@johnquiggin @inthehands It sounds like you're conceptualizing programmer productivity in an entirely backwards way.
Research: quantifying GitHub Copilot’s impact on developer productivity and happiness

When the GitHub Copilot Technical Preview launched just over one year ago, we wanted to know one thing: Is this tool helping developers? The GitHub Next team conducted research using a combination of surveys and experiments, which led us to expected and unexpected answers.

The GitHub Blog

@johnquiggin @inthehands
I have links, too
https://visualstudiomagazine.com/articles/2024/01/25/copilot-research.aspx

Also, I am an expert. And you're essentially saying that getting rid of maps and road signs makes drivers more productive.

New GitHub Copilot Research Finds 'Downward Pressure on Code Quality' -- Visual Studio Magazine

'We find disconcerting trends for maintainability.'

Visual Studio Magazine
@jenniferplusplus @johnquiggin
I don’t have anything to add to what Jennifer wrote above and what I wrote downthread, except to keep in mind that GitHub link is marketing material.

@inthehands @jenniferplusplus

Reading your entire thread, we seem to be in furious agreement. "Code editor autocomplete" isn't "software development", but it isn't nothing either.