Anders Puck Nielsen
This week, both Blinken and Stoltenberg reiterated the notion that #Russia has already lost in #Ukraine because they failed to achieve their original goals.
This is the kind of dangerous narrative that I talk about in this video. We have to stop talking about the war in terms where it sounds like Ukraine has already won.
https://youtu.be/-8ZPbnVqHrY
The point of Russia's meat wave tactics

YouTube
Dec 23, 2023 at 9:58amWeb
Show threadTobias MerkendorfDec 23, 2023

@anderspuck russia cannot win if we keep supporting Ukraine.

But once we stop, they can. Especially since stopping the aid would lead to cracks in the Western alliances.

E.g. why would and should Europe support the US on China if the US doesn't support us on russia? Would the US come to Poland's aid? Would Germany muster the will to oppose russia in the Baltics without American support?

Show threadmacattackmicmacDec 23, 2023
@anderspuck Russia losing the war does not imply or result in a Ukrainian victory, because their victory conditions differ. Reinforcing Russian inferiority has an impact beyond those countries that support Ukraine and helps keep Russia diplomatically isolated
Show threadPaladin  Dec 23, 2023
@anderspuck The only acceptable format is that victory is won when russia is kicked out and all stolen people have been returned.
Show threadJoe StickerDec 23, 2023
@anderspuck Unfortunately I think the same mistake that was made in 2014 is going to be repeated.
Show threadAnders Puck NielsenDec 23, 2023
@joesticker I hope not, but I think the answer is still up in the air.
Show threadJoe StickerDec 23, 2023
@anderspuck Great video by the way! Hopefully the Russian army is in a worse condition than many thinks. And one could also add that they probably are following Sun Tzus idea that “Attack is the secret of defense”
Show threadJos_BDec 24, 2023
@anderspuck @joesticker To me, the most likely scenario is that this becomes a frozen conflict (semi-permanent cease fire) with little territorial gains from todays situation. And it will stay like that until those in power in Russia today disappear.
Show threadJW prince of CPHJan 3, 2024
@anderspuck also, nobody ever won a war. There are only degrees of losing.
Show threadAnders Puck NielsenJan 3, 2024
@jwcph I think that depends on the perspective. For example I think most people would agree that Azerbaijan won the latest war about Nagorno-Karabakh.