joep schuurkesNov 26, 2023
I knew the Dunning-Kruger effect wasn't valid, but thanks to this post I finally understand why: "The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation"
https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2022/04/08/the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-autocorrelation/
The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation – Economics from the Top Down

Do unskilled people actually underestimate their incompetence?

Economics from the Top Down
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@joeposaurus

> "The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation"

I might be wrong, but I think this analysis is based on a conceptual misunderstanding.

Not the fact that the two curves are correlated is interesting (can be replicated with random data) but the fact that they are not perfectly correlated is.

The problem of "too juicy to not be true" might apply (but the other way as intended).

This convinces me more:

https://andersource.dev/2022/04/19/dk-autocorrelation.html

(Thanks @jayalane )

Anyway: Need more thinking.

I can’t let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

Organizing my thoughts regarding an argument about the Dunning-Kruger study and statistics in general

andersource
Nov 28, 2023 at 12:09amWeb