I knew the Dunning-Kruger effect wasn't valid, but thanks to this post I finally understand why: "The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation"
https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2022/04/08/the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-autocorrelation/
The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation – Economics from the Top Down

Do unskilled people actually underestimate their incompetence?

Economics from the Top Down

@joeposaurus And even the graph from the original study pretty much says outright "people are bad at guessing their relative performance, but they tend to guess closer to their actual performance."

Which flies 100% against the way people invoke "Dunning-Kruger." It's just saying "lol this person is stupid" dressed up in phony intellectualism.