@mxey this argument has some merit when you see it through the eyes of classical power production where you have 100% capacity but never need more - but also have production costs.

It will not work with renewables if you build up only 100% capacity, you likely will have to build up more.

Gladly renewable power is meanwhile cheap to build - cheaper than all other power sources. And it has a nice extra feature which will change power markets - no production costs.

You get a power production that has another feature - very fast regulating speeds. Solar power can be switched on when there's sun instantly. Wind power plants can be switched on in less than a minute - something most classical power production systems can't do. We rely on the rotation momentum of the turbines + generators there.

At the moment we have even the problem that slow nuclear + coal powers press renewables or of there markets as they just can't regulate fast enough. Coal and nuclear plants count in hours in regulating power output in larger jumps.

@mcfly
Honestly, i don't think H2 will play any major role in vehicles. it is to heavy/dangerous for planes, and way to expensive for anything that can be heavier, even ships.

It will have an urgent need in industry and to power high efficient gas plants, and to my information (please update) all the hydrogen facilities planned worldwide can only supply 10 % of germanys demands.

@mxey

@Hypx

The Toyota Mirai has a 5.6kg H2 capacity. At the recent price of $36/kg in California that's $201 for a range of 312 miles.

Home EV charging in California would cost between $13 - $29 depending on your tariff for the same range.

Hydrogen is definitely NOT the cheap option.

Let's not also forget that 99+% of hydrogen available globally today isn't green, it's dirty.

@zem @mcfly @mxey

@mackaj @zem @mcfly @mxey That's 400 miles, FYI. The current pricing is a specific local shortage of hydrogen. If anything, it is showing demand is growing faster than supply. This is a repeat of when PV panels got really expensive, and critics concluded that it was the death of certain types of PV cell. But it was just a minor setback, and the critics got egg on their faces in the end.

In California, it is legally required to have a certainly percentage of green hydrogen.

@Hypx

That's Toyota's official range, but Autocar only managed about 300 miles of real world range per tank.

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/toyota/mirai/353754/new-toyota-mirai-2021-review

If demand for H2 is outstripping supply that demand isn't coming from FCEVs. The sales numbers are pitiful and dropping. More likely it's being diverted to industrial uses where it's a higher priority and actually needed.

Hydrogen for light to medium transport is a dead end use case.

@zem @mcfly @mxey

@mackaj @zem @mcfly @mxey You can say that about any car. Reviewers get different mileage from official numbers.

You are creating your own alternative reality here. Hydrogen car sales are growing and hitting records:

https://mitechnews.com/update/us-hydrogen-fuel-car-sales-set-second-quarter-record/

@Hypx

California isn't the world. Total global sales are on the slide 🧐

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/global-hydrogen-car-sales-continue-to-fall-amid-collapse-in-south-korean-market-despite-surge-in-china-and-us/2-1-1516082

@zem @mcfly @mxey

@mackaj @zem @mcfly @mxey The supply shortages are in California.

And "global decline" is really just South Korea alone, likely due to Hyundai scaling back Nexo production in favor of next year's model. Even then, that is only looking at passenger cars. FCEVs in total probably went up once all vehicle types are included.

@Hypx

At a $62,000 starting price the Hyundai Nexo isn't going to do much to rescue sales. #BEV cars are cheaper to buy, cheaper to run, faster, more exciting and better looking. And there aren't even any Teslas in this picture 😄

https://www.caranddriver.com/hyundai/nexo

@zem @mcfly @mxey

@mackaj @zem @mcfly @mxey

You won't get those other cars at "starting at" prices. Nexo is pretty much the same price as other EVs of the same type. As the Nexo is still made in small volumes, economies of scale have yet to kick in. FCEVs will get much cheaper.

@Hypx

You're just going to dismiss those list prices because you don't like them? Don't be ridiculous.

You actually have to sell large numbers to get economies of scale. Hasn't happened for FCEV cars in the last decade and isn't going to happen now given the inflated cost of them.

@zem @mcfly @mxey

@mackaj @zem @mcfly @mxey In the US, you basically cannot find them at the lower prices. Sometimes, there are massive dealership markups. It is simply how it is.

Several companies including Toyota and Hyundai have announced big reductions in cost for the next-gen fuel cell designs. It is happening whether you like it or not.

@Hypx

So why would dealership markups apply to the other cars and not the Nexo? That makes no sense.

And you think a markup on an Ionic 5 would close the $20k gap to the Nexo list price? I've some friends and work colleagues in the states so I'll ask them about this today.

@zem @mcfly @mxey

@mackaj @zem @mcfly @mxey They aren't marking up the price of the Nexo. All EVs are pretty similar in price in the real world.

This is also irrelevant, since FCEVs will get much cheaper.

@Hypx

You're wrong about the mark up, see the prices at this LA dealer.

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/new-cars/hyundai/ioniq-5/los-angeles-ca

Their 2024 SE models are $43k and their long range SEL models are $47k.

Dealers are selling the 2024 Nexo for $65k. No comparison!

FCEV car prices won't come down. It's a chicken v egg scenario. They need volume sales to drive down prices. Fierce competition from BEVs + high prices + poor H2 fuel infrastructure will prevent that from ever happening. They're a dud.

@zem @mcfly @mxey

@mackaj @zem @mcfly @mxey They've recently come down, as few are buying them.

Again, FCEVs will be cheap cars eventually. You apparently think the laws of economics will be magically suspended the moment hydrogen gets involved.

@Hypx

The man asked to be taken out of replies. Show some respect.

It's the laws of economics that are keeping FCEV prices high.

Keep on dreaming though.

@mackaj Keep believing what you want then. It is clear your mind is already made up.

The rest of us can look at progress in all green technologies and make their own conclusions.

@Hypx

I don't know who "us" is supposed to be. You seem very alone in your evangelical crusade to push hydrogen on Mastodon.

@Hypx

Green hydrogen is very necessary — for industry — to replace the 94 million metric tonnes of grey hydrogen produced annually. I've always said that.

@Hypx

It takes 50 mWh of electricity to produce 1 metric ton of hydrogen. So 50 mWh * 94,000,000 = 4,700,000,000 mWh

An average 3.5 mW wind turbine with 70% efficiency may produce 24×365×0.7×3.5 = 21462 mWh annually.

So 4700000000 / 21462 = 218,991 wind turbines.

They'd have to be dedicated to hydrogen production and that only replaces grey hydrogen.

There are ~400,000 wind turbines deployed globally. Have a think about the cost, and the number of electrolyser stacks required 🧐

@hansbot