sladnerOct 26, 2023

Astounding data on US economy this morning. Now let’s talk about the people who use the “impending recession” rhetoric. Who are they? When do they say it? If they are a CEO justifying layoffs, it’s time to call bullshit.

From: @w7voa
https://journa.host/@w7voa/111301274847597215

Steve Herman (@[email protected])

Treasury Department releases an analysis of data from the IMF and other international sources showing the US economy "continues to outpace global peers and has exhibited more strength than forecasters anticipated throughout 2023 along three key dimensions: growing economic output, labor market resilience, and slowing inflation." https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-us-economy-in-global-context

Journa.host
Show threadsuushikijitsuOct 29, 2023

@sladner Do you know if there's been any good qualitative research on why people think the economy is bad? There's been a lot of discussion on x-twitter on why popular sentiment seems to have diverged so dramatically from quantitative indicators, but the discussion is mostly based on guessing afaict?

e.g., https://twitter.com/ArmandDoma/status/1717982852485361757

Armand Domalewski on X

Has anyone done focus groups or deep dive interviews into why people feel this way? Economic metrics that used to track how people feel about the economy are no longer a good barometer. So what is driving this?

X (formerly Twitter)
Show threadsladnerOct 29, 2023
@suushikijitsu I don't, no. But in general, I would say it's likely related to narrative dominance about impending doom. I haven't seen any specific qual research on this recently though.
Show threadsuushikijitsu
@sladner Thank you
Oct 30, 2023 at 12:03amWeb