We do understand the #globalwarming caused by fossil fuels - for four decades it’s been going as predicted.
But we don’t understand the surprise upward leap that is happening now.
And that worries me.

@rahmstorf we have at least heard of a combination of
- strong El Niño on
- weaker winds from Sahara to Atlantic (lower dust transport, more sunlight getting in)
- little mixing in the Atlantic (more heat at surface)
- cut sulphur emissions from cargo vessels

What I don't know is whether those elements are quantitatively sufficient to explain such a jump