Prof. Stefan RahmstorfOct 5, 2023
We do understand the #globalwarming caused by fossil fuels - for four decades it’s been going as predicted.
But we don’t understand the surprise upward leap that is happening now.
And that worries me.
Show threadSteve's PlaceOct 5, 2023
@rahmstorf My Monopoly money is on methane.
Show threadanlomedad

@stevesplace @rahmstorf

Ha. Methane. Look at this forecast comparison Sep 2020 vs Sep 2023 at 500hPa. The colour code hasn't changed in the 3 years. It's truly a different planet.
I wonder if the OH Radicals were all jailed together with the climate activists everywhere.

Oct 5, 2023 at 5:40pmWeb
Show threadHerbert - Antifa - Tiemens ✅🌻Oct 11, 2023

@anlomedad I wonder if it has to do something with hidden emissions in Turkmenistan discovered last year. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/mind-boggling-methane-emissions-from-turkmenistan-revealed

@stevesplace @rahmstorf

‘Mind-boggling’ methane emissions from Turkmenistan revealed

Leaks of potent greenhouse gas could be easily fixed, say experts, and would rapidly reduce global heating

The Guardian
Show threadanlomedadOct 11, 2023
@herbert_tiemens
Ah, good idea. And all the venting 2020 / 2021 from unsold "natural" gas due to pandemic? And from summer 2022 on, Putler had to vent a lot, too. Pun not intended but funny.
@stevesplace @rahmstorf
Show threadHerbert - Antifa - Tiemens ✅🌻Oct 11, 2023

@anlomedad yes, I can imagine the pandemic and the war in Ukraine plays a role.

@stevesplace @rahmstorf

Show threadanlomedadOct 11, 2023

@herbert_tiemens
Might also have to do with atmospheric changes from the water vapour in the stratosphere that Hunga-Tonga ejected in January 2022 and which had distributed globally by end of 2022?
ECMWF Copernicus from which the pictured methane FOREcast is, also has a data model on past methane concentration in various altitudes. I should download the data and look for sudden changes anywhere since Sept 2020 on the ground and at 500hPa. Maybe a weekend project.

@stevesplace @rahmstorf

Show threadanlomedadOct 12, 2023

@herbert_tiemens
I plotted NOAA's monthly mean methane as the monthly year-on-year growth rate, meaning, the difference in concentration from June 2023 over June 2022.

There is a jump in the growth rate that begins in May 2020. From about 7ppb in previous Mays to 12ppb in 2020.
All following 2020 months have that jump, too. In the chart, 2020 is the last red bar before the blue bars begin which are 2021ff.

Going a month back to April. 2020 is still ~ normal at 10ppb. But the blue bar 2021 jumps to 15.
Even more pronounced in February and March 2021 where growthrates double over 2020.

But 2022 February and March are totally nuts. Compared to 2020 where they had a growthrate of 7 and 8 respectively over the previous year, in 2022, they now both jump to 21ppb.

What caused that? Except for Putler's war, I can't think of anything else, and the war didn't immediately cause venting of superfluous gas, did it? We all continued to buy off the sociopath until late summer, didn't we?

The sudden increase peters out in September 2022. Still higher than before Covid and Putler, but at a more linear rate, if we disregard the years in between.

Regarding 2023 up to June: still far outside normal growthrates but only half as bad. Phew.
You can download the data here and play with it to see more: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/
@stevesplace @rahmstorf

Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases

The Global Monitoring Laboratory conducts research on greenhouse gas and carbon cycle feedbacks, changes in clouds, aerosols, and surface radiation, and recovery of stratospheric ozone.

Show threadHerbert - Antifa - Tiemens ✅🌻Oct 12, 2023

@anlomedad
Thank you! Fascinating to see this in graphs, it seems we are into something. I can think of venting of superfluous gas because of decline of oil and gas demand in 2020 due to lockdowns started mid March in Europe and some weeks later in America.

@stevesplace @rahmstorf