Tara C. Smith 

"Masks don't work"
"Vaccines don't work"
"Distancing doesn't work"

(They do. Just imperfectly).

I've heard so many of these types of comments over the past 3 years, I thought it was time to write a bit about how one big aspect of infection is a numbers game. /1

Sep 28, 2023 at 12:51amWeb
Show threadTara C. Smith Sep 28, 2023
/2 When we think of it that way--what is the number of microbes needed to cause an infection?--we can think about how masks, vaccines, distancing, ventilation, hand hygiene, and more can collectively reduce our exposure.
Show threadTara C. Smith Sep 28, 2023
/3 In the best cases, these interventions reduce the dose of the microbe to a number too low to cause infection. This is the basis of the "swiss cheese" layering defense that was touted early on, and is still important today. My article @ Quanta discusses this. https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-many-microbes-does-it-take-to-make-you-sick-20230927/
How Many Microbes Does It Take to Make You Sick? | Quanta Magazine

Exposure to a virus isn’t an all-or-nothing proposition. The concept of “infectious dose” suggests ways to keep ourselves safer from harm.

Quanta Magazine
Show threadProfessor Charles HaasSep 28, 2023
@aetiology “It’s the dose, stupid”. I seem to need to keep reupping blog posts I did in 2020. https://chaasblog.wordpress.com/2020/05/18/its-the-dose-response-stupid/ #COVID19 #QMRA #riskassessment
It’s the Dose Response, Stupid

During the first campaign of Bill Clinton, James Carville hung a sign in the campaign office, “It’s the Economy, Stupid”.  Amidst the discussions on COVID19 and SARS-COV-2, the concept of dose-resp…

Charles Haas' Blog
Show threadBrace of HoundsSep 28, 2023
@aetiology The thing is, as far as we know, vaccines DO work - but only on the variant they were created for. If we could stop the virus from mutating, things would go better. But here we are.
Show threadGordonSep 28, 2023
@recurve one could say you restated Tara's post, just imperfectly
Show threadgrabeSep 28, 2023
@aetiology The number that is different is the death rate. Without a crisis, other issues are given news priority.
Show threadWandering StarSep 28, 2023
@aetiology People talk about the "Swiss cheese" model of prevention but I like to think instead of a rigged carnival game. In principle, the ring can go on the bottle. But the motion and alignment have to be perfect, and at a certain distance, is very unlikely. Each layer of protective behavior makes the distance further, the ring smaller, until the probability becomes virtually zero.