Australian COVID-19 stats update for the week ending 12 September 2023:
Hospitalised cases rose sharply in TAS, and also rose in VIC and WA.
The basis for reporting of "hospitalised cases" varies wildly across all the states of Australia. The dismal reality is that they cannot be compared in absolute terms or per capita. Please refer to dbRaeven's excellent explainer for more details:
https://github.com/dbRaevn/covid19/blob/main/pandemic/Definitions.md#hospitalised-cases
I'm excluding VIC until there is some consistent history to compare to in their case reporting - they are no longer reporting RAT test results. VIC reported another unexplained wild spike for August 26 - ~4X higher than the recent values.
Here's Victoria's recent raw daily case numbers.
The estimates for the % of the population currently infectious now range from 0.2% for QLD up to 1.0% for TAS. As these are based on reported cases, they currently exclude VIC.
At 1.0%, 1-in-100 Tasmanians are currently infectious.
Put another way, the chance of at least one Tasmanian being infectious among a group of 30 Tasmanians is 26%.
Inputs are unchanged:
- Median Infectious Period (days) = 10
- Under-reporting Factor = 14
In the last 5 weeks, I estimate 292K residents of those states were infected, 1.6% of the population. I estimate 29K of them will go on to suffer Long COVID, using the rate of 10% reported by the WHO and others.
Interactive Australian covid stats dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:
https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-au-vaccinations#statistics-by-geography-page---pick-a-stat-any-stat-for-a-time-series
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Mike Honey
