GiddyGapThe recession should probably be here by now
tst123It already is and has been for a while for most of us. Stocks might not be down but that’s largely because of inflated earnings. The rich have gotten richer though
gowanThat’s not the complication. What has made the NBER unwilling to label this a recession up to now was the job numbers. You can’t be in a recession if everyone can easily get a job. Now that the job numbers are declining and layoffs are going on they will likely declare it a recession.
Heresy_generatorNot while the economy has been expanding for the last 4 quarters and shows no signs of contraction they won't.
How do you feel like it’s a recession? And why do you think most people feel that way?
Obviously, recessions don’t happen based on anecdotal information, but that doesn’t mean it can’t feel that way to some individuals.
Necessities are much harder to afford than a few years ago
Sure, but that’s not what recession means.
I don’t care about GDP. Most people are worse off than they were a few years ago
I get what you’re talking about, but you can’t just make up your own definitions based on anecdotal evidence.
House prices going up double digits nationwide since 2020 is not anecdotal. Same with vehicle prices.
I agree that those things are hard if you’re not already a homeowner or you need to buy a new car, but those things don’t constitute a recession.
Call it whatever you want that doesn’t make it go away
Another proof that economists are not disinterested and instead work for the banks.
Unemployment is at the lowest rate for 30 years and wages are rising… that’s actually part of what’s driving inflation. Annualized growth this year is expected to hit an astonishing 6%. In July new orders for manufacturing hit their highest level in 9 months. Construction is doing well and consumer spending is way up. Nothing points even remotely to a recession.
It’s not about unemployment it’s about affordability
Wages are up more than the inflation is
Houses are up much more than wage increases over the past couple years. Again, it’s about affordability for the average person
That’s cherry-picking because I could just as easily say “fuel costs are down, so it’s good for the average person”
You don’t just spend all of your income on housing. To be more accurate, you would need to track the average expenses and if they go up or down. Which is called… the CPI
How is the workforce participation rate doing? You know, the only number that matters.
cakeistheanswerUsing the stock market to measure a recession has to account for continually rising rates at which money is rented. If you can see pretty massive cases of consumer level inflation while businesses struggle, you already have a hole money is leaving.
Watching the evergrande saga unwind over the course of years should give an idea to the extent of run time it will take to see results, especially when it is in the interest of investors to prop up value.
tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth
Wages up more than 5% annually
Inflation 3.2% annually, 4.8% when not counting food and energy
Sorry, the economy is good for the worker and not in any recession
United States Wages and Salaries Growth - July 2023 Data - 1960-2022 Historical
Wages in the United States increased 5.97 percent in June of 2023 over the same month in the previous year. Wage Growth in the United States averaged 6.20 percent from 1960 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 14.79 percent in April of 2021 and a record low of -5.86 percent in March of 2009. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Wages and Salaries Growth - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
And how much has housing costs increased over a 3 year period vs. wages?
That’s part of CPI. Housing is like one third of it. The only time wages were higher vs. the inflation was during the pandemic, and that’s not a fair comparison since a lot of people lost their jobs so the average wage was affected
The average person now is much better off than in 2019 and it’s not even close
You are living under a rock
They’re wealthy enough to be able to absorb the increased cost without noticing while going “ACK-shually” to anyone who isn’t wealthy enough to aborsb the cost increase without noticing. Arm chair economists are fucking cancer.
You are both arguing from an anecdotal pov and he has data to back up his argument.
Someone is winning and it ain’t you.
Oh yeah, I’m sure clown is technically correct about the term and definition of recession. The people losing are definitely the people who are being priced out of groceries and homes. Acting like everything is fine and the economy is great is pretty fucking tone deaf.
Yup! And that is what they are ignoring. How does billionaires getting richer help me?
His data is zoomed in to YTD and not the past 3 years when the bulk of the inflation happened. You really can’t see that? Zoom out a bit and his data will show a whole different picture.
That’s not true, inflation-adjusted wages are here:
bls.gov/…/usual-weekly-earnings-over-time-total-m…
You can see we’re up in comparison to 2019, and even if this chart cuts off 2023, we’re also up since 2022 anyway
Not an argument