Megan Fox

Not only is the Big Short guy (yes, that guy) betting heavily against the market again, but he's so confident about it that the contract value is 1.6 billion, or seen another way,

fully 93% of his entire investment portfolio.

EDIT: though the source is really fishy.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/the-big-short-take-2-michael-burrys-1-6-billion-short-bet-against-sp-500-nasdaq-100-11189541.html #Finance #investments #money

'The Big Short' Take 2: Michael Burry’s $1.6 billion short bet against S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management held puts with a total contract value of $886 million against SPDR S&P 500 ETF shares, and another $739 million against Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, Reuters reported citing securities filings.

Moneycontrol
Aug 15, 2023 at 5:12amWeb
Show threadMegan FoxAug 15, 2023
I've been braced for a collapse for ages, and am surprised it hasn't happened yet (continually, for like a year, what the heck, how is it sustaining this) but I wasn't THAT confident. So that's... bracing.
Show threadJanne MorenAug 15, 2023

@glassbottommeg
Of course, it's now in his interest to publicize this widely. Increase doubt and increase the chance of his bet panning out.

Take the news with a grain of salt.

Show threadDan ShickAug 15, 2023
@glassbottommeg “according to a verified Twitter account by the name of ‘Michael Burry Stock Tracker’”. so meaningful these days.
Show threadMegan FoxAug 15, 2023

@datn I really wonder if that's fake.

Using Twitter to manipulate markets would be a somewhat new use of Twitter ads / Blue, heh.

Show threadDan ShickAug 15, 2023
@glassbottommeg well, I checked after you posted, and it seemed that there were other more reliable outlets citing more reliable sources, but I didn’t want to be a reply guy so I shut up about it :)
Show threadMegan FoxAug 16, 2023
@datn ah, thanks anyways! Good to know it wasn't fake
Show threadDavid OlsenAug 15, 2023
@glassbottommeg oof.
Show threadBryan RobertsonAug 16, 2023
@glassbottommeg I feel like the shit is really going to hit the fan in a year or two, when mortgage deals start expiring and people who are already struggling now have to face a huge jump in their monthly payment
Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023
@TheCodeViking @glassbottommeg I know it works fairly different in the US from Canada, but up here it's already wild that my mortgage has increased $1600 per month since I moved in, because of the feds jacking interest rates to curb inflation... when the inflation calculation heavily favors mortgage costs.
Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023

@TheCodeViking @glassbottommeg I'm on variable here, since it's the fastest way to pay off a mortgage, but the people on fixed are about to get utterly destroyed when their rates update.

Canada already has a serious problem with people being able to afford food due to housing costs.

Show threadBryan RobertsonAug 16, 2023
@charlesrandall @glassbottommeg yeah my wife and I were just talking about that yesterday, as we ordered our food shop. How the hell are people outside of tech (or similarly privileged jobs) affording to buy food, the prices are mad now
Show threadMegan FoxAug 16, 2023

@charlesrandall @TheCodeViking oh, odd, the terms here are precisely reversed- a variable rate loan here is the one that will change year to year, whereas as a fixed rate loan is the one where the price is set based on the prime rate when you sign paperwork and then that's your rate for 30 years.

How's it for you?

Show threadGordon LittleAug 16, 2023
@glassbottommeg @charlesrandall @TheCodeViking *drops in* that's the same in Canada, except variable rate mortgages can change month to month and fixed rate are only good for a max of 5 years (or less).
Show threadMegan FoxAug 16, 2023
@gord @charlesrandall @TheCodeViking oh that's HORRIFYING. A fixed rate that changes after 5 years is just a balloon loan, which is easily the most predatory kind of loan there is.
Show threadGordon LittleAug 16, 2023
@glassbottommeg @charlesrandall @TheCodeViking Yeah it's not pretty.
Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023
@gord @glassbottommeg @TheCodeViking I think the only thing that stops it from being predatory is that the rate is effectively set by the institution and applied to all fixed loans, and it's based on the prime rate, so they generally can't just say "you in particular now pay 20% lol"
Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023
@gord @glassbottommeg @TheCodeViking like my rate is prime minus 1.1%, because we were a safe bet for the bank, and no matter what happens, our rate is always prime minus 1.1%. they can't change that.
Show threadGordon LittleAug 16, 2023
@charlesrandall @glassbottommeg @TheCodeViking To be honest variable always scared me, I'm on a 5yr fixed of... 2.09%? Which is pretty nice right now.
Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023
@gord @glassbottommeg @TheCodeViking yeah I'm just in a lucky enough position that I can afford some pretty extreme increases. it sucks but it's only cutting into my retirement... which would never happen if we don't pay the house off anyway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023
@glassbottommeg @gord @TheCodeViking the only reason it has worked in canada is that they are extremely strict about giving mortgages to people. it was an utter nightmare to get mine, and I'm in a well compensated two-income-no-kids home.
Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023

@glassbottommeg @TheCodeViking You can't get a 30 year mortgage here without predatory interest rates. The longest you can get with reasonable interest is about 20 years.

Variable means you are tired directly to the prime rate which means my payment changes when prime changes, but it means I am always paying off all the interest monthly in order to put the same amount on principal monthly.

Fixed is a prime + X lock-in, but it only locks for 5 years, then you renew at a new rate.

Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023
@glassbottommeg @TheCodeViking So the only way to actually pay less over your mortgage with fixed is if the rates spike and drop back during your lock-in period. Otherwise you are just paying on a plateau that always averages more than just riding variable directly.
Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023

@glassbottommeg @TheCodeViking Fixed rates also occasionally fuck with you depending on your bank by changing how much you pay on the principal, when prime changes. Which means a lot of canadians are in a position right now where they are *only* paying interest, and nothing on principal.

shit's fucked

Show threadMike MB | Perfect Minute GamesAug 16, 2023
Even more fun we (also Canadian mortgage-holders) were also on variable, but the amortization period got so long they had to increase our payment by 25% when we renewed.
@charlesrandall @TheCodeViking @glassbottommeg
Show threadCharles RandallAug 16, 2023
@mgb_pmg @TheCodeViking @glassbottommeg yeah some banks work to keep your payment the same on variable at the expense of principal. I'm raw-doggin' it, which is why my monthly is up like 50%
Show threadMike MB | Perfect Minute GamesAug 16, 2023

@glassbottommeg Remember the coda of the screen adaptation of The Big Short, where they talk through how nothing has changed, nobody went to jail, and the market practices that caused the crash were already being recreated and maybe even "improved" upon?

Yeahhhhhh.

Show threadMegan FoxAug 16, 2023

@mgb_pmg no, that's not fair, we did pass some real legislation to help prevent it! Dodd Frank was real progress!

Which is why the bankers had their pawns gut it.

Show threadMike MB | Perfect Minute GamesAug 16, 2023
@glassbottommeg True. And heartbreaking.