Could be worse OP, could be a movie about the North Koreans successfully invading America, you know, North Korea, a country that barely has a navy and who’s Air Force is mostly old Migs from several decades ago, a country who starts threatening their neighbors whenever their food supply runs low because their chubby leader eats too much.

At least the original version of the movie was against the Russians while they were a super power.

a country that barely has a navy

North Korea has the largest submarine fleet of any nation. Of course most of those are old diesel subs, but the point still stands.

We’ve seen what the Russian military has been like in Ukraine, if you think most of those subs aren’t rusting piles of garbage then you’re probably drinking that tankie Kool aid. They’ve probably had to cannibalize the majority of them just to keep what few they have running, because it’s not like they just idly make parts for 1950’s era subs, especially not for a country that barely has enough money to feed themselves and spends most of that on their nuclear program.

Also they’re loud ass diesel subs, every modern navy will know exactly where they are and how many they have easily, and it’s not like 1950’s weaponry is going to make up the difference.

This being said, Russia also isn't as weak as we like to think. Given how the war has ground to a standstill, it's not unlikely it'll become yet another frozen conflict. And that's after arming the Ukrainians with large amounts of advanced weaponry.

We've become so used to the idea we'd have air supremacy in any potential war, we thought the Ukrainians would be able to push their way through the front, forgetting that the Ukrainians aren't able to take out artillery or mines beforehand.

The Russians have also adapted quite quickly. At the beginning of the war, the Ukrainians were having huge successes with drones. Now the Russians are downing 10,000 drones a month:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-losing-10000-drones-month-russia-electronic-warfare-rusi-report-2023-5?op=1&r=US&IR=T

To be clear, Russia is an existential threat to Europe. If they turn this conflict into a stalemate, they will have won territory that doesn't belong to them and it's almost certain they'll rebuild, rearm and do it again. Just like happened with Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine in 2014.

But underestimating the Russians is not in NATO members' interests. No one ever won a war underestimating the enemy, better to give Ukraine more than they need, than just barely enough to make incremental advances under the assumption Russia won't do a second wave of conscription and/or doesn't have (or isn't building up) reserves for a (counter) counter-offensive.

And given how Ukraine has struggled, even with advanced weaponry, it's clearly high time for Europe to re-arm so that Russia doesn't mistakenly think we're weak.

Hey there!

Looks like you had a moderate, down to earth take on the Russia-Ukraine war.

That’s a down vote.

But seriously thanks for not attending to the feedback loop of propaganda and childish dick stroking.

I do get it though. Most of us want Ukraine to win. We ignore the information that we don't like. It's human.

But it's not helpful, especially when the reality sinks in that this war isn't easy, and thousands of young men are dying.