The world is likely to face major disruption to food supplies well before temperatures rise by the 1.5C target. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/12/global-heating-likely-to-hit-world-food-supply-faster-than-expected-says-united-nations-desertification-expert
Global heating likely to hit world food supply before 1.5C, says UN expert

Water scarcity threatening agriculture faster than expected, warns Cop15 desertification president

The Guardian
@rahmstorf Is likely to? We are already there per World Meterological Organization:
**July 2023 – Surface air temperature highlights**
The global average temperature for July 2023 is confirmed to be the highest on record for any month.
The month was 0.72°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for July, and 0.33°C warmer than the previous warmest month, July 2019.
The month is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the average for 1850-1900.
Heatwaves were experienced in multiple regions of the Northern Hemisphere, including southern Europe.
Well-above average temperatures occurred over several South American countries and around much of Antarctica.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/copernicus-confirms-july-2023-was-hottest-month-ever-recorded
Copernicus confirms July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded

The global average temperature for July 2023 is confirmed to be the highest on record for any month. The month was 0.72°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for July, and 0.33°C warmer than the previous warmest month, July 2019.

World Meteorological Organization