The world is likely to face major disruption to food supplies well before temperatures rise by the 1.5C target. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/12/global-heating-likely-to-hit-world-food-supply-faster-than-expected-says-united-nations-desertification-expert
@rahmstorf Is likely to? We are already there per World Meterological Organization:
**July 2023 – Surface air temperature highlights**
The global average temperature for July 2023 is confirmed to be the highest on record for any month.
The month was 0.72°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for July, and 0.33°C warmer than the previous warmest month, July 2019.
The month is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the average for 1850-1900.
Heatwaves were experienced in multiple regions of the Northern Hemisphere, including southern Europe.
Well-above average temperatures occurred over several South American countries and around much of Antarctica.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/copernicus-confirms-july-2023-was-hottest-month-ever-recorded