HeavenlyPossumAug 10, 2023

I was thinking to myself, “when will the effects of climate change get so bad that they provoke revolution” but then it occurred to me: they already did. Just in the wrong direction.

Syrians fled a civil war driven by the worst drought in a thousand years and Europe responded with a wave of reactionary fascism.

Central Americans fled rising temperatures that are killing agricultural workers and the U.S. responded with a wave of reactionary fascism.

Russia just happens to be in a war for control of some of the world’s best farmland.

Sudan is in the middle of a civil war and Niger just had its umpteenth coup.

Reactionaries are *already* at war with us over climate change. It’s only going to get worse as the world gets hotter.

Show threadmike805Aug 10, 2023

@HeavenlyPossum Get used to it. If the amount of arable land is going to decrease, then there will be wars and land grabs as every nation realizes they had better get theirs while the getting is at least possible.

Whichever nations do NOT decarbonize, but rather produce all the energy they can, will win.

Humans are made up of competing tribes and there is zero chance that all humans can agree to disarm and stop using energy. Who ever opts out wins. Prisoners' dilemma.

Show threadWeasel

@mike805 @HeavenlyPossum
Russia stands to win from global heating. And Republicans are pro-Russia. This explains a lot.

Climate Change and Russian Agriculture
Update Date: 24 Jan 2022
https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/18679

How Russia Wins the Climate Crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/16/magazine/russia-climate-migration-crisis.html

Agricultural area in Siberia will expand due to climate change
13 December 2019
https://ksc.krasn.ru/en/news/agricultural_area_in_siberia_will_expand/

Agroclimatic potential across central Siberia in an altered twenty-first century
3 November 2011
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045207

Climate Change and Russian Agriculture

Russian weather trends such as winter softening and increase in summer heat have a significant but opposite effect on yields. An interesting finding is a...

Aug 12, 2023 at 3:17amWeb
Show threadHeavenlyPossumAug 12, 2023

@weaselx86 @mike805

The problem with Russian agriculture shifting north is that none of those soils are particularly friendly to mass cereal cultivation, even if they do warm up.