nothingcorporateWe just survived the hottest 36 days ever recorded
…since 1979
BombOmOmFor the hell of it, I checked the list of hottest temperatures recorded and the top for the US was in 1913, Sweeden 1933, Russia 2010, and Germany/France 2019 (for just a small selection of countries. Very few were from this year and many weren’t even from this century.
You’re downvoted because you’re comparing one day record temp to a full month of record highs.
Also, a large part of the reason the global average temperature is high is because the Southern hemisphere is having a very warm winter.
Comparing global average to local max temperatures is also wrong.
Semi-Hemi-DemigodMuch of eastern North America is having a relatively cool summer thanks to the smoke from the Canadian wildfires. Temps in my area have barely broken 85F/30C all summer
iamtrashman1312Here in Minnesota we’ve gotten plenty of heat, humidity and smoke, which has been just super fun. The entirety of the last month has felt like living in a pack-a-day smoker’s lungs.
TropicalDingdongnot saying there’s not a climate change disaster happening, but some of these analyses are a little misleading.
Except that to only say “…since 1979”. We maintained record breaking temps ALL above the prior record for 36 is the damn point, and to miss that is to miss the entire thing.
There have been 44 years since 1979. Lets say the probability of getting 1 day above the 1979 record in a given year is 1/44 (uniform). The probability of even getting a week of the hottest days in one year would be (1/44)^7, would be a one in 300 billion chance. There are some issues and some assumptions I’m making for convenience, but its not ok to make idle comments with no comprehension of the scale of extremity this event represents.
As in, do you have any fucking idea how unlikely that is? This isn’t an ‘oopsie poopsie’ funny record event.
Not to be too pedantic but your back of the envelope probabilities are based on inaccurate assumptions and probably several orders of magnitude off. Specifically, your not just assuming uniform but also independent from one day to the next. A more accurate treatment would be to assume conditional dependence from one day to the next (the Markov property). Once you have a record hot day, you are significantly more likely to have another record hot day following it.
That said, it’s still low probability, just not as low as what you’re saying.
Any thoughts on how I could incorporate that for a better back of the napkin?
If we stick with your 1/44 assumption, we can then assume 50% chance that the following day will also be a record setting day (probably too low still but the math is easier). Your one week estimate would be (1/44)*(1/2)^6.
While the data presented here only goes back to 1979, I seem to recall that some scientists worked out global average temperatures based on coral reef core samples and ice core samples. I think there were some other samples too but I can’t remember what they were. So they are the hottest ever
kescusayI can’t find any indication that 1979 had a 36-day heatwave with anything approaching the temperatures we’re seeing.
I think the significance of 1979 is that’s when we started keeping track of an overall global temperature day by day…
Not terribly significant. The length, number of heat records broken, and sheer catastrophic scale of this heatwave is unprecedented. We don’t have any reason to think anything remotely like this has happened in human history, and the fact that we didn’t have the means to track the entire planet’s average temperature prior to 1979 doesn’t negate that.
Hawaii is on fire. Oregon is on fire. Canada is on fire. California is on fire. The winter in the southern hemisphere is unprecedentedly warm, and much of Australia burned over their summer. It’s going to burn again.
This is an emergency.
36 days… July 3rd to August 6… is 34 days.
I find it very hard to believe anything that makes such a simple mistake doesn’t have other mistakes.
Hm, I’m counting 35 days
You’re correct, still not 36 though.
Still not 34 either. Where’d you learn to count?
teftHottest 36 days ever recorded…so far.
Laughs and sobs simultaneously
Oh, if I were an alien looking down at us little billions of ants destroying their own habitat to construct tributes to a few thousand fat ants, to the point all the ants were about to die off, I’d be tilting my head and laughing my alien ass off.
JackGreenEarthI’d be really sad, because I have empathy. Of course, maybe you’d be a psychopathic alien who laughs at injustice and pain.
Nobody panic!
The only people that matter, who also happen to be the ones that caused and continue to exacerbate the climate apocalypse knowingly for private profit, have built luxury bunker complexes in temperate places like New Zealand to shield themselves from the consequences of their own actions.
No one important is in danger, just us billions of disposable capital batteries, no biggie.
Now get back to work! The owners have quarterly ego score expectations to exploit out of you before you die of heat stroke because of your bad decisions like being poor!
The more you attempt to shift to revolution, the more you counteract real meaningful change. There are market solutions to this problem and it’s called government regulation.
i.pinimg.com/…/40bfb6a76627032773450ddee967be36.j…
Successful revolution and war will not help global warming. Failure will result in a massive social shift against these ends.
Those are some great definitions but that doesn’t change the fact that literally anyone can find someone that disagrees with these positions. Forcing them on people will not get the reaction you want. That right there throws out any thought of regulatory capture being the sole thing at play. It can hardly be considered a plutocracy when a good portion of the populous agrees with it.
Even if that is the complete reality, very few people agree with you and antidemocratic actions will result in a massive backlash.
People agree with Hitler, doesn’t make them right, or worth listening to, nor does it make them willing to compromise.
You’re relying on the wilfully ignorant and belligerent to go against their nature, and that’s a level of stupidity so divorced from reality that you’re effectively no different to them.
You’ll sit here and argue that you’re right till you’re blue in the face but you’ll still never change anything.
queermunistThis is literally idealism.
You have an idea about a market solution to the problem, and then act like you’ve solved the problem.
The problem isn’t a lack of ideas! The problem is a lack of implementation! You have to get these ideas into the real world somehow, and revolution is the only way you can do that. There are billionaires aligned against implementing these ideas. You have to stop them.
Revolution is also more than eating the rich. Its also setting a framework for the future through non-violent action. Organizing and interacting both with local communities and national and international concerns.
So we all burn while you try to change the system instead of focusing on the problem at hand. Great and thanks.
Did I say that was the only thing?
Because if you ignore this now to burn down the rich, you'll be burning later anyways.
It’s not idealism. If you have a better solution that is not radical by design, go ahead. I was literally not specific intentionally. Go ahead, what instrument within the current system would work that are not regulations?
Its over man, I just look at those sad little true believers as pathetic comic relief.
They’d be the ones in the town squares pre-revolution scolding passers by for not blindly following the wisdom of their oppressive monarchs.
Which country has implemented what you seek? Who has done it right?
Many countries have successfully overthrown previous governments and implemented new ones. It depends what you mean by ‘successful’.
It depends what you mean by ‘successful’.
I’m asking which ones did it by their definition of successful. Which country should we emulate?
There will be people who thought it was successful, and people who thought it was unsuccessful, in every revolution. You’d need to clarify who ‘they’ are.
I asked a specific person, @queermunist, which country we should emulate. @queermunist, which country should we emulate?
I await their response.
And as for me, I’m not sure there’s anything we can do about this, even with a revolution - at least with such a small number of us that actually care. If the majority actually wanted to change from the status quo, maybe then a revolution could work.
Well, I mean, historically, the USA had a very successful revolution in that they have become the greatest world power nowadays…
Even if they are a capitalist crazed two party nation, where a majority struggle to survive and they have to pay for the basic human right of healthcare, all in the name of some “free market” to help the rich get richer at their own expense.
So, you are saying we should emulate the United States? Are you following this conversation?
That’s not what I said. I gave an example of a “successful” revolution.
In the conversation on which successful country to emulate. I think the point is that one doesn’t exist that’s been successful. It’s a societal filter.
I hate to break this to you, but these have to go hand in hand.
Government, and the individuals who make up the government, are balancing a lot of competing demands.
Until one of those demands may include the loss of use of their property, at the very least, then they will always be more incentived to overvalue the perspective of the rich. And the rich will literally say, yeah, it's bad, but we can slap a bandaid on it - 20% or the cost for 40% of the solution, that should get us by!
Some other overwhelming force will eventually be necessary to change the calculus of what an "acceptable solution" looks like. Because with your market regulation, you will always have people willing to pay the fine instead of following the rules, and if they are allowed to continue externalizing those costs to the rest of us, we will continue to have less room to request less benefit, and we will have to take what they decide to give us. Which I can almost guarantee will be pennies compared to what it costs us in the meantime.
In 1988 my uncle was working as a chemist for the oil industry in Oman. When he was home he’d tell us about global warming from carbon dioxide from burning oil
In the industry they knew. In politics they knew. But it made a lot of money and they’d be dead before New York would be flooded
I wish aging had been solved back then, so those people would know they’d live to see the impending disaster
RIP Great Barrier Reef this coming southern summer
New York won’t get flooded for another 100-200 years… we may still need to solve the aging problem if we want to avoid that.
Scientists knew in the early 1900s.
New Zealand won’t be exempt from climate change and they have to come out of their bunkers at some point. I always ask myself what good their money will be when global trade collapses. How long until their security guards realize that they hold the real power?
Security guards have families, families can be held hostage safely in the bunker while the guards battle the hungry hordes outside.
It’s already happening, North Island has been flooding so much this year it’s barely newsworthy anymore. And yet people think voting in the rightwing “we need to be fiscally conservative but also we will spend billions on roads” party is a good idea.
So, pretty much like every other Western country. I’m in Germany, and conservative thinking and an openly fascist party are on the rise, while everything is blamed on the Greens in the government.
The hottest 36 days on record. Also the coolest summer we can expect to see for the rest of our lives.
gornarPeople generally don’t realize this, but it’ll become apparent soon enough!
SparkyFunny you say that…
Relevant vlogbrothers video about why this particular summer is hotter.
The Biggest Science Story of the Week
Now that we have an idea of how much ocean cloud cover can produce a certain amount of global cooling we can find other, better ways of doing it in a controlled manner.
qnickNukes could help
If we put them on high population centres it will have long term effects too.
ChetzemokaHunga Tunga Hunga Ha'apai didn't help either. Instead of just the usual global cooling sulfur dioxide, this particular volcano was under water enough that it launched massive amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere, which has greenhouse effects. Add that all together on top of the chronic climate change and you get this summer.
https://www.syfy.com/syfy-wire/2022-tonga-volcano-may-have-caused-temporary-global-warming?amp
