MunichRaven
Prof Christina PagelCovid update!
If you want an update on latest Covid data in England (increasing, from a low base), then check out this summary of my Twitter thread on a NON TWITTER platform!
Bornach@chrischirp But according to the owners, X *is* technically a non-Twitter platform now 😁
haq@chrischirp Stats also available from a trusted source, professional actuaries, here on mastodon (you don't need to go elsewhere):
Stuart McDonald MBE (@[email protected])
Attached: 4 images Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased sharply, up 41% in-week. R estimate has increased to 1.20. Admissions slightly fell in London (-4%), but rose in all other English regions. The largest increases were 82% in the South East and 75% in the South West. Acute bed occupancy increased by 43%.
Adam Jacobs 🇺🇦@chrischirp Thank you!
When you say "from a low base", how sure can we be that it really is low, and not just that it looks low because so little testing is going on these days?
@statsguy Because if there were more infections it shows in hospitalisations (with a short time lag):
https://mstdn.social/@ActuaryByDay/110824851718759457
@chrischirp
https://mstdn.social/@ActuaryByDay/110824851718759457
@chrischirp
Stuart McDonald MBE (@[email protected])
Attached: 4 images Hospital admissions with COVID in England increased sharply, up 41% in-week. R estimate has increased to 1.20. Admissions slightly fell in London (-4%), but rose in all other English regions. The largest increases were 82% in the South East and 75% in the South West. Acute bed occupancy increased by 43%.
@haq @chrischirp Surely it only shows in hospitalisations if people being hospitalised with covid are tested for covid, otherwise we wouldn't know they're being hospitalised with covid.
Is that happening routinely in hospitals still?
@statsguy I'm not an expert so I can only point you at the group of actuaries who spend their entire professional life working this out and have been proved correct so far over several years of producing stats from the available evidence. They discuss their methodology extensively but those posts are off mastodon.
@chrischirp
@chrischirp
@haq @chrischirp I think @ActuaryByDay is here, isn't he? Perhaps he would have some insight on the extent to which covid hospitalisation stats are capturing the true extent of covid hospitalisations?
@statsguy Do you really believe people seriously ill enough to be admitted to hospital, or intensive care, or a hospital morgue, go undiagnosed? What exactly do you believe their doctors are writing on their paperwork? And what motivation do you believe the entire UK medical profession + the ONS + dozens of specialist actuaries would have for covering up? Serious question.
@chrischirp @ActuaryByDay
@chrischirp @ActuaryByDay
@haq @chrischirp @ActuaryByDay I genuinely don't know. I notice that the amount of tests being done dropped dramatically in April this year, which I assume was due to some change in policy. I don't know how much of that drop was due to less testing in hospitals.
I have heard anecdotally elsewhere that people are being admitted to hospital with respiratory infections and not being tested for covid, but I have no idea how common that is. I'd love to see good data on it.
@statsguy Ok so which respiratory infection did this anecdote claim was being tested for, found positive, and recorded on several layers of paperwork by multiple medical staff?
@chrischirp @ActuaryByDay
@chrischirp @ActuaryByDay
@statsguy 1. If someone is admitted with pneumonia then they're tested to try to determine the cause and necessary treatment (or if they're very unlucky the cause of death for the death certificate).
2. If there was suddenly a massive increase in cases of pneumonia (or any other respiratory disease) and a matching decrease in cases of covid (or any other respiratory disease) then that would show in the stats and be investigated.
What a bizarre conspiracy theory you've uncovered in this one vague anecdote that you seem to have found mysteriously persuasive, "statsguy" with the bio claiming you're a "Medical statistician".
S.Nicholson@chrischirp No thanks
Matthew 
@chrischirp Is it possible to get boosters of the vaccine privately since the gov has given up? And would you recommend doing that?
Duncan Idaho
Beeks
RodneyPetersonTalentAgencyThat’s the problem with exponential events. They’re exponential. They start out slow, but quickly become enormous. We’ve seen this movie with Covid before.
I understand math and science. The second I heard about Covid in December 2019 I knew it was going to be horrible. I’m surprised only in that it wasn’t worse.
We still have no clue as to how the virus will mutate. We just know it will.
@chrischirp Thank you. This is unfortunate news.
@chrischirp thank you!
lady troodle@chrischirp hi Christina - thank you for this info! Do you know if the self testing swab kits can still be relied on to identify the new covid variants? Thanks again!
Have a lovely weekend 😊
Have a lovely weekend 😊