Loukas (They/Them) 🏳️‍⚧️Jul 30, 2023
@anderspuck looks like this shipping data posted by @auonsson confirms what you said a few days ago - that actually enforcing a Black sea blockade will be harder said than done, since Russian navy can't actually achieve sea supremacy. https://twitter.com/auonsson/status/1685574858611077120?s=20
Markus Jonsson mastodon.world/@auonsson on Twitter

“During night 3 civilian ships seem to have successfully challenged Russian threats to Black Sea navigation. Ams1, Sahin 2 & Yilmaz Kaptan sailed direct routes, openly advertising destination Ukraine over AIS. Their origins: Israel, Greece and Turkey/Georgia.”

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Show threadJon Greenwood
@Loukas @anderspuck @auonsson maybe I’m being very naive but I just don’t understand how the Black Sea fleet is still a threat. If #Ukraine had about 100 of these https://ribcraft.co.uk/ couldn’t they just swarm them with #harpoon , #seaspear #brimstone and even #javelin ?
Leading Rigid Inflatable Boat (RIB) Manufacturer | Ribcraft UK

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Jul 30, 2023 at 6:05pmWeb
Show threadLoukas (They/Them) 🏳️‍⚧️Jul 30, 2023
@Earlydoors take a look at the analysis video i was talking about. As you say, having to be out there in the Black sea puts the Russian navy very much in harm's way, and actually enforcing a blockade is harder turn many realise https://youtu.be/fvPcPZP-6os
Naval war is back after grain deal collapse

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Show threadAciesJul 30, 2023

@Earlydoors @Loukas @anderspuck @auonsson

I don't think the fear is that Russia would be able to control the area, have surface warships seizing cargo ships or turning them around, etc, like a "proper" blockade envisions.

The concern is that their subs sink a few cargo ships, and then no other cargo ships are willing to risk it, and insurance companies won't insure any ships in the Black Sea.

Show threadJon GreenwoodAug 25, 2023

@Loukas @anderspuck @auonsson
Yep, this kinda thing

https://youtu.be/c9klvscOSqs?si=ur1TXBlOq5-QM8DB

👍🫡🇺🇦

24 Aug: NIGHT AMBUSH: Half-Asleep Naked Russians Run in Panic | War in Ukraine Explained

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Show threadauonssonAug 25, 2023

@Earlydoors @anderspuck @Loukas

Jon, good propechy there!

Show threadauonssonAug 25, 2023

@Earlydoors @anderspuck @Loukas

Relevant post: https://x.com/mt_anderson/status/1694850970851610754?s=61&t=4gcHbGrROrFSuXbQYtIwWA

Almost the entire Black Sea Fleet is hiding in port while its occupied coasts are attacked.

MT Anderson on X

🇷🇺BSF: NOVOROSSIYSK🇷🇺 0.5M📷 from 24 Aug 2023 (11:37UTC) of Novorossiysk. Observations⬇️ - Admiral Essen in port - 4x Pr. 22160 in port - 3x Improved KILOs - 1x Ivan Gren - 2x Ropucha Class (+1 in dry dock) - 1x Pr 21631 - Weapons Runner SPARTA IV & PIZHMA

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