Quick reminder that at least a decent chunk of the forests *still burning* in Canada were part of the "offsets" countries and companies pay for as credits in Carbon Trading schemes meant for them to keep polluting guilt-free.

The "offsets" are now in the atmosphere heating the planet. As well as the original emissions.

Good stuff. /s

That's part of why Emissions Trading Schemes are little more than fancy accounting and should never be accepted as Climate Action.

#BlahBlahBlah #ClimateCrisis

@pezmico wait

if the offsets are now burnt
are they deducted again from the companies / countries that used them?

@meena @pezmico Good question!

In some offset schemes, notably California's, growers have to contribute a small percent of their credits into a shared "buffer pool" that theoretically makes up for lost trees (on paper)...

...but in the 100-year program's first 10 yrs, credit reimbursements from wildfires have already depleted the pool by, um, 95%? and it's not clear what will happen if a grower just gets burned to the ground and walks away.

* https://phys.org/news/2022-08-california-climate-reveals-problem-forests.html
* https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.930426/full

Worrying finding in California's climate initiative reveals problem with using forests to offset CO2 emissions

Researchers have found that California's forest carbon buffer pool, designed to ensure the durability of the state's multi-billion-dollar carbon offset program, is severely undercapitalized. The results show that, within the offset program's first 10 years, estimated carbon losses from wildfires have depleted at least 95% of the contributions set aside to protect against all fire risks over 100 years. This means that the buffer pool is unable to guarantee that credited forest carbon remains out of the atmosphere for at least 100 years. The results, published in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, illustrate that the program, one of the world's largest, is likely not meeting its set requirements.

Phys.org

@meena @pezmico In short, carbon offsets are a scam. At best they provide some funding for forest protection programs, but there's no evidence they sequester carbon at anywhere near the rates necessary to offset the **actual carbon** being emitted up front by their buyers.

* https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/13/20859156/forests-fires-carbon-offsets-amazon-california
* https://features.propublica.org/brazil-carbon-offsets/inconvenient-truth-carbon-credits-dont-work-deforestation-redd-acre-cambodia/

If forests go up in smoke, so can carbon offsets

Raging fires across the Amazon and the start of California’s fire season have put the heat back on a controversial method for balancing the carbon budget, called offsets.

The Verge

@alexch @pezmico i knew that… but… i didn't think they were … *this much of a scam*

and… so… thoroughly useless…

@meena @alexch @pezmico (I hate to be a well-actually guy, and I 100%
agree re:"tree-based carbon offsetting"...
...but I think there's a way to do it right, like Atmosfair: do projects to eliminate carbon sources. Like this: https://www.atmosfair.de/en/neues-klimaschutzprojekt-solarelektrisches-kochen-fuer-schulen-in-tansania/
They dont have millions from Silicon Valley, they've been around for 20 years, they're recognized to be super serious, they have a janky 2007 website in German, they're expensive, and I like them. I wish they were more known and better funded.)
Solar Electric Cooking for Schools in Tanzania - atmosfair

atmosfair

@hlabrande @meena @pezmico

Cool, thanks for sharing. That seems like a much less scammy strategy. It does still feel very wishful and indirect, and still lets air travelers feel less guilty even as they keep on polluting. But at least it seems they are actually replacing current and future carbon emitters with clean alternatives — which is good because the only way to stop burning fossil fuels is to stop burning fossil fuels!

@hlabrande @alexch @meena @pezmico one of the issues with these schemes is that it's nigh impossible to measure their impact, and often the interventions themselves are too little too late. I remember one of these that gave closed metal wood-fire ovens to populations that relied on stone-built open wood-fire ovens to cook, because it was cheap enough to do, you could easily do it at scale. The idea was that the metal ovens were much more efficient and would require so much less wood, it would save a lot of carbon emissions directly and also save on deforestation, while simultaneously providing actual support to poor populations. A couple of years pass, and independent orgs notice they weren't seeing the reduction in deforestation they expected, they go in to check, and people were using both their new oven AND the old stone ones simultaneously, in order to prepare more food than they could cook before, because they actually needed it, but also burning even more wood than before.

@brocolie @hlabrande @meena @pezmico

Bummer! That’s an example of Jevon’s Paradox, which @sidereal helpfully taught me about on Mastodon a few days ago:

https://kolektiva.social/@sidereal/110771529635815405

Oh well! Back to the drawing board. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

sidereal (@[email protected])

@[email protected] In economics this is called the Jevons Paradox and discovering it in 2011 is the reason I lost faith in greenwashed tech and became a full-on doomsday prepper. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox Basically he noticed in the 1860's that more efficient steam engines didn't use less coal; people used the same amount (or more) coal to do more work.

kolektiva.social
@alexch @hlabrande @meena @pezmico @sidereal just goes to show that actual solutions need to be large scale, require a lot of commitment, and must involve the community intimately, making them as much of a cultural change as a material change. Imho none of this trickle-down style of intervention that aims at changing one small thing is worth it, even at scale. First and foremost we need to be reducing the rates of coal, gas and oil extraction, stop subsidising fossil fuels, stop new development of fossil fuel extraction and processing, and keep convincing people to stop eating beef and dairy. And of course, keep making renewable power, and decommissioning fossil fuel power plants, not firing up more of them (looking at you Germany). Changing urban codes to make cities denser and investing in public transit, etc...
It's mostly all civic, cultural, and policy changes imho.

@brocolie @alexch @hlabrande @pezmico @sidereal yes…

but all of this cuts at the heart of neoliberal capitalism, which seeks to divide us (into races, classes, nuclear families and self-sufficient individuals)

the slashing of unions, of public (third) spaces, and the incredible increase in time we spend at work, or otherwise running after "benefits" makes it really hard to organize from the bottom up.

We will need nothing short of a revolution for this cultural change to start happening.

@meena @alexch @hlabrande @pezmico @sidereal it's hard to get people to work together for a common goal in a society where it's normal for people to feel outraged and defensive when you tell them that if you have covid-like symptoms, you should try to isolate for 10 days from when the symptoms started

as long as people's first thoughts are to themselves instead of the groups they're part of, any kind of revolution will not be possible

@alexch @meena @pezmico Honestly when I heard about this I was thinking about how hurricanes could easily undo that offset (because we lose trees here almost every year due to such weather) but yeah forest fires are yet another reason this does not work in practice. Like unless these offset companies mark each tree and checks up on them every year to make sure they're still alive there's just no way to guarantee a living being in nature will exist long enough to do what you want it to do.