Anders Puck NielsenThis piece by #Mearsheimer on the war in #Ukraine is poor. Instead of pointing out *where* he is wrong (there is too much), I think it might be more productive to offer a few points about *why* he is wrong:
a) Mearsheimer thinks he can do meaningful analyses of international politics without country specific expertise.
b ) Because of a) he thinks this conflict for #Russia is about national security and not regime security.
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The Darkness Ahead: Where The Ukraine War Is Headed
This paper examines the likely trajectory of the Ukraine war moving forward. I will address two main questions. First, is a meaningful peace agreement possible? My answer is no. We are now in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West on one side and Russia on the other – see each other as an existential threat that must be defeated. Given maximalist objectives all around, it is almost impossible to reach a workable peace treaty. Moreover, the two sides have irreconcilable differences regarding territory and Ukraine’s relationship with the West. The best possible outcome is a frozen conflict that could easily turn back into a hot war. The worst possible outcome is a nuclear war, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
Mark R. Stoneman
el Celio 🇪🇺 🇺🇦