Tim MakJun 25, 2023
Good morning to readers: Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands, and Moscow, well, Moscow remains in Russia. For you today, a Wagner mercenary weighs in on recent events.
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The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack

A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
"The situation between the Russian army and Wagner is tense," acknowledged Sergei Munier, a French-Ukrainian soldier believed to be involved with the Wagner forces.But he didn’t have any more to say about whether he was supportive of his band of mercenaries.
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
But he didn’t have any more to say about whether he was supportive of his band of mercenaries. It was a surprise that he was so vague at such a dramatic time, when loyalties are being questioned and mutinies executed.
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The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack

A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023

Munier bragged just days ago in a Facebook post, posing in the destroyed city center of Bakhmut:

"There is no greater honor than walking where Prigozhin (the boss of the Wagner Group) walked."

Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023

But now that Wagner looked to be overthrowing the Russian military command – radio silence.

The ambiguity reflects a pervasive uncertainty among many Russians right now. Should they throw in their lot with what Putin’s supporters have labeled a coup?

Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023

Munier is categorical about the situation itself: intense fighting broke out between the mercenary group and the regular Russian army, he wrote in a text, and it is violent. But regarding his position on it, he went silent.

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The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack

A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
From my conversations with him I realized that even though many who support Ukraine are rooting for domestic turmoil in Russia, there is no sense whatsoever in rooting for Wagner. The enemy of your enemy is not your friend.
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
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The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack

A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
More questions about Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted coup remain than were answered after Belorussian President Alexander Lukashenko allegedly brokered a deal to send Wagner mercenaries back to their barracks.
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
Before that happened, however, the world was seized by the spectacle of Prigozhin holding friendly meetings with top Russian generals and Ministry of Defense officials in Rostov-on-Don, a critical center for running the invasion of Ukraine.
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
What had started as a mutinous thunder-run to Moscow by the Wagner Group ended up being something more like a Joyride of the Valkyries.
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
The agreement to turn the Wagner columns around was apparently brokered by Belarus’ Lukashenko at the behest of Putin, who talked a tough game in the morning but ended up looking feckless and weak in the face of armed rebellion.
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023

But what Prigozhin allegedly got was exile in Belarus, amnesty for his fighters, and possibly a free hand for Wagner Group to continue their deadly profiteering in Africa.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-wagner-prigozhin-belarus-deal-6782455ddc4234816bfb2d7d388d8a9a

With Russia revolt over, mercenaries' future and direction of Ukraine war remain uncertain

Russian government troops withdrew from the streets of Moscow on Sunday and the rebellious mercenary soldiers who had occupied other cities were gone, but the short-lived revolt has weakened President Vladimir Putin just as his forces are facing a fierce counteroffensive in Ukraine .

Associated Press
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023

Ukrainian officials could barely contain their glee at Putin’s crisis.

“It is not yet obvious to everyone... Russia right now is showing all the signs of a Failed State ... a rapidly degrading and dying entity. And it will only get worse from there.”

https://t.me/M_Podolyak/141

Михайло Подоляк

«русское 404» Не всем пока очевидно… очевидное). Но тем не менее Рф уже прямо сейчас демонстрирует все признаки Failed State (несостоявшееся государство), «территории 404» – быстро деградирующего и умирающего образования. И дальше все будет только хуже… Первичные признаки очевидны: - паникующая военно-политическая элита абсолютно не соответствует уровню задач и просто наблюдает, как система управления стремительно разваливается. Параллельно с этим «дожирают» бюджетные потоки; - теряется контроль над частью территории (приграничные Белгородская, Брянская, Курская области) с нарастающим итогом. Отсутствие же эффективного контроля провоцирует стремительные рост панических настроений, бегства и попыток выйти на «самоопределение»; - стремительно теряется и контроль над внешними границами. Не только в Белгородской области, но и по всему периметру – просто пока никто не готов заявить публичные территориальные претензии, даже понимая, что силовые ресурсы отведены в зону войны. Тем не менее по мере финализации…

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Show threadTim Mak
And Kyiv, which has been pummeled by Russian air strikes and missile attacks this month, had a reprieve. By 4 a.m., there had been no air alarms in Kyiv and the lull in attacks suggests that Russia's frontline forces were distracted by Prigozhin’s temper tantrum.
Jun 25, 2023 at 3:15pmWeb
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
Hi, all.
@Chrisallbritton here. Tim has graciously asked two things of me: That I help out with The Counteroffensive for a couple of weeks, and that I jot down some reflections on this conflict, given that I’ve covered two-and-a-half other conflicts over the past 20 years.
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
But Ukraine? Ukraine is different. For one, there’s a 600-mile front — about the distance from the Outer Banks to Boston — far away from Kyiv, the cities in the central heartland and Lviv, which makes all the difference in how one covers this war.
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
There’s no insurgency. No Russian snatch teams out prowling the streets looking for foreigners to kidnap and kill on video. But some things don’t change. All of the populations, inevitably, are touted for their resilience.
http://counteroffensive.news
The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack

A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
How could they be otherwise? You can’t curl up under the kitchen table in the fetal position forever. At some point you have to go the store, make a living, and do the laundry, even if you face the possibility of horrific violence that could shred you at any moment.
Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
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Follow along at: http://counteroffensive.news
The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack

A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

Show threadTim MakJun 25, 2023
The brilliant Wagner interview was done by our guest contributor Joseph Roche!
Show threadPenny ✌🏽👊🏼💪🏾Jun 25, 2023
@timkmak @Chrisallbritton Thank you both‼️ 🫶🏽
Show threadKevinJun 25, 2023
@timkmak I thought it was oddly quiet last night (I’m in the US but follow a lot of telegram channels.) I didn’t know if part of that was just being Saturday. I was surprised at the relative silence in Kyiv. Zelenskyy’s video about the chevrons this morning was so totally unrelated and obviously prerecorded. I guess we’ll find out in the nightly speech what the mood is.