"When you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die."

I am very sceptical of this. Lukashenko brokered a deal? He's a Putin puppet, why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him? What would that deal look like? Does Prigozhin become head of the MoD or Putins designated successor? He's right there outside Moscow, he has the leverage, why would he blink?

Putin called him a traitor, an enemy of the state, why would Putin back down from that point, he already looks weak, why look weaker via a U-turn? Prigozhin must know he's a dead man if he backs down, he knows the play book, why would he trust in the deal?

Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out? Was the voice recording that is the ultimate source of all this a Russian State propaganda play? Is it a play by Wagner to buy time to consolidate his forces before he moves on Moscow? But then, he has to be the one to move fast and hard...

Whatever is going on, we don't know. Next 5-24hrs will be key.

I'm convinced Prigozhin believed he was a dead man already and decided to go out with a bang. The chances of success were just too slim, it just feels like a final gambit.
If he believed he was bound to fail in Ukraine and bound to fail in Moscow, wouldn't the latest news suggest he has even fewer options than he had before? He's backed himself into a corner surely?

I'm not sure what you mean.

But apparently, the deal entails him moving to Belarus and not being persecuted.

So, if my assessment is correct, which is a big if, he went from Putin putting a mark on him to an at least decent chance of surviving in Belarus, by pulling this hail Mary.

If that's truly the deal he took, he's cemented himself as a fool of historic proportions and he will die in predictable fashion in Belarus (if he ever makes it).
What do you reckon? Window or tea?

he went from Putin putting a mark on him to an at least decent chance of surviving in Belarus, by pulling this hail Mary

That's not how Russia works. Now he can never stand near a window, cliff or staircase, or drink tea.