alyaza [they/she]MEGATHREAD: whatever the hell is going on in Russia right now
PowderhornJust woke up, read the Post's feed, then The Economist's coverage, and I can safely say I have no idea what's happening. Suffice to say, I'm not grabbing popcorn yet.
nob0dyIf Moscow stations start playing this, it's a probable sign that the Coup is legitimate and the transition has started. Bonkers to think think that in our lifetime we'd see the collapse of a nuclear power. Even if Putin and his government survive this Coup, I don't think he'll have any political capital left to lead. By 8:00pm EDT, we'll have a pretty good idea who's left standing.
Tchaikovsky - Swan Lake (Swan Theme)
CorrodedCraniumHasn’t it been stated it’s not a coup?
Prigozhin says his aim is “not a military coup but a march for justice” and it comes after a long-running war of words with Russia’s military chiefs escalated dramatically.
www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877
I don’t know what the difference between that and a march for justice are though.
"This is not a coup" is roughly akin to "I'm not a Nazi" ... you've brought up something outside daily norms to such an extent that you're engaging in framing.
I get that. What I’m wondering if there have been any further developments or changes to that. Even hints to the contrary.
If things did escelate or spiral and there was no word as to directions or aspirations I feel like it could be a massive confusing fumble
YozulIt doesn't even really matter what Prigozhin intended at this point. Putin has made it clear he's treating this as a coup attempt, so Prigozhin has to either pull off a successful coup or die.
It's down to branding. Prigozhin is framing this as a fight against the military leaders who have deceived Putin and caused him to make mistakes, but he does not blame Putin himself and is leaving room for Putin to change sides.
That framing aside, this is still a coup with the goal of overthrowing gov't leadership by force.
MidnittePeople attempting coups have historically called them noncoups.
juergen_hubertAlso, if Prigozhin wins, Putin will probably end up being "killed by traitors", but Prigozhin will vow to avenge him and bring all traitors to justice.
It's all word play, total information control and fog of war; by not attacking Putin directly, they avoid upsetting the Russians that still have total confidence in Putin and maintain that possibility that Wagner could still end up in alliance with Putin anyway, like with Chechens.
Attacking the military talking-heads however, doesn't risk anything, most Russians don't really trust the entire regime anyway, just Putin.
Once Wagner have more and more control of Russia, they can just go after Putin.
This is all speculation on my part tho.
If it’s not a coup, it’s going to get Prigizhin killed and Wagner disbanded. So I can’t see it as much of anything else.
exscapeWait, how could we possibly have a good idea TODAY? Aren't they in Rustov, almost 1000 km from Moscow?
MuddybulldogWithout opposition, that’s a day of travel.
LollerCorleoneThere are reports of gunfire at half-way between Rostov and Moscow already. But yeah, I don't think they will manage to reach close to Moscow within a day https://nitter.net/igorsushko/status/1672434377425551361#m
SpaceCadet2000They've already taken Voronezh as well, some 500km from Moscow and have been reported to be advancing through the Lipetsk province, 350km south of Moscow.
exohumanPutin has already fled Moscow to another province and some top leadership have fled to Turkey. They are moving FAST into Moscow.
They're already moving fast toward Moscow. They're saying they're in Voronezh already but fog of war means we don't know for sure for a while.
They're taking over Rustov because of a huge military supply there.
Nobody in their way to stop them, Russian's army is in Ukraine. If they continue like this Moscow will be put under siege by tomorrow.
This is the second collapse of a nuclear power in 30~ years
CaptainApatheticExcept that with the USSR falling the transition of power for Russia was a bit more peaceful than this seems like it could go since in 1991 Russia didn’t have a complete power vacuum due to Boris Yeltsin was accepted as the legitimate leader of the succeeding Russian Federation. It’s looking like the shit going on in Russia now makes the August coup attempt look like a misunderstanding
Except that with the USSR falling the transition of power for Russia was a bit more peaceful
At the time that wasn’t a given. Gorbachev was under a lot of pressure from hardline communists within the party to crack down on the uprising and no-one really knew where the loyalties of the military lay. As it turned out Yeltsin won the day and the transition went peacefully but it could very easily have turned out differently.
What are you talking about? Yeltsin literally bombed congress and killed many congress people… the transition to capitalism from the USSR was and is still one the worst humanitarian crisis ever.
I think I read Wagner forces number about 25,000? Can anyone contextualize how big a headache this will be for Russia?
"CNN has tracked Wagner mercenaries in the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, Ukraine and Syria. Over the years they have developed a particularly gruesome reputation and have been linked to various human rights abuses."
It sounds like Prigohzin could be a big headache for Putin.
If he deposes Putin he could be a big headache for us all. There are already reports of Wagner seizing nuclear weapons facilities in Russia.
AnomandarisThere have been a bunch of mixed reports, I think it's tough to say exactly what's true. I saw one person suggesting that given Wagner's numbers in Africa it's likely there's really only half that number there. But there have also been reports of Russian military and intelligence personnel switched to support Wagner.
As someone else said, I think for most people it's just a matter of wait and see what shakes out.
Considering that they needed Wagner to take over many areas in Ukraine and their military couldn't do it, it'll be a huge headache.
It also destroys Putin's reputation of being in full charge. Think about the impact on the public, Putin has total informational control over Russia and this fucks him over.
Remember, they used to say that Wagner's head would be cut off quickly if they ever "think" of going against Putin and there you go, it's all BS.
I'm skeptical that this will affect his reputation, it's just too easy to spin this for a propaganda-captive population so deep in the hole. But it would be great if it did.
The tactical impact seems more promising to me, but I'm also woefully uninformed so what do I know lol.
roofuskitAdd to that a brigade (2,000-8,000) of Russian special forces that defected. Those guys are probably worth 2-3 national guardsman.
Question is, is it true?
Hard to tell. What is abundantly clear is that they are meeting little to no resistance. Otherwise they would have never gotten this far. Whether troops really are joining them I can't confirm. It's all coming in very rapidly from sources I have no experience with.
I'm going to update my previous comment to add "allegedly."
Beau has three videos out on it already. He's really good for context on military things.
Second this. His channel is great for short yet accurate/level-headed views on topics like this. He will always get a shout-out from me.
BishmaHe's been almost as fast as social media on this one, and I trust his sources.
Does he have a military background or something? Why is he more of an expert on this topic?
I've not done a deep dive into his background, since he's clearly been in journalism for a long time with the choice of tangents he goes off on and presumed questions he addresses. I needed only one video to know he was becoming part of my daily news diet. If he does not have a military background in some way, I would be surprised.
HarkMahlbergHis real name is Justin King, and his background is... checkered at best. His politics on screen are solid but he also has prior convictions for human trafficking. These are things you can look up. So I take everything around him with a grain of salt.
I appreciate the background. I've worked with a lot of journalists with checkered pasts and am one myself, so that sort of thing doesn't bother me so long as he's good at predicting the things he can based on experience and data and is clear when he can't. That his politics align somewhat closely with mine makes it easier to watch, but I'm there for the analysis.
PseuSo I googled around, and found this conviction: https://www.justice.gov/archive/opa/pr/2008/February/08_crm_145.html
Justin Eric King, 27, of Chipley, Fla., has been sentenced to 41 months in prison followed by three years supervised release resulting from his conviction on charges of conspiracy to commit visa fraud, visa fraud and conspiracy to commit alien smuggling, Assistant Attorney General Alice S. Fisher of the Criminal Division and United States Attorney Gregory R. Miller of the Northern District of Florida announced today. The defendant and his co-conspirators brought illegal aliens, mostly from Bulgaria and Romania, to work in the hotel industry in and around Destin, Fla. King was sentenced by Senior District Court Judge Lacey A. Collier of Pensacola, Fla.
This isn't usually what we think of as "human trafficking." It seems that the people he smuggled understood what they were doing, and not being forced or coerced it. If that were the case, additional charges of exploitation would have been filed.
AngrilyEatingMuffinsThis is what like 99.9% of human trafficking is. They’ve successfully propagandized anyone who conflates sex trafficking with normal undocumented human movement.
This is what I was referring to, thank you for finding it.
DoucheAsaurusAn important distinction here is that he was convicted for the visa fraud kind of trafficking and not like sex trafficking or something. There's a huge difference there but people hear trafficking and just assume it's the worst kind imaginable.
I think he said he was a contractor for army but didn't go into any more details. He was also in prison for smuggling immigrants across border if I recall correctly.
He is intentionally vague in his videos, but he has worked with the military in some capacity as a civilian before, and he still has a lot of contacts in the military. Mostly though, I personally trust him more than most because I've been watching him for years and he usually turns out to be correct. He's also pretty level headed and willing to admit what he doesn't know.
Thanks for this, that was some pretty good insights.
Beau the human trafficking CIA asset? Nah thanks.
atocciI am going to be glued to Kbin all day for this. This won't stop the Ukrainian invasion though, will it? It sounded like things will be continuing as they have but under a different leader. There's no real "benefit" to Ukraine in this, is there?
Without the Wagner group, Russia will have much lesser professional troops on their side. And this entire thing could also have a severe impact on the morale of the soldiers.
There is also the possibility that it won’t be continued depending on the outcome of what the Wagner group is trying to do. If they go for a full coup, that could mean the war is over.
Full coup won't end war, the assumption is that Wanger is for peace, it's a war-fighting merc company, war benefits them.
But Wagner boss said that the justification for the war is wrong and that Putin was tricked by the defense ministers to go into it in the first place. I highly doubt that they would continue a conflict they see no advantage to continuing. No, this won’t stop all wars but it might stop this one.
The same boss that has said a lot of bullshit in the past several months and did nothing?
He's a known liar. Don't believe his BS.
Apparently he's been stockpiling for this attack, so I would say "did nothing" is inaccurate.
Exactly, this is the boss that was complaining to Kremlin and folks on telegram that they're going to pull from Ukraine because Russian's military isn't supplying them with ammo.
They didn't pull for months, still fought with "almost zero ammo". They suddenly have ammo now? The same ammo they said they have zero of?
This is the "nothing" I was referring to, I didn't say they didn't do anything in general, I'm saying they said a lot of bullshit and did nothing of the sort. Thus, don't believe what they say in public, because in the background, they're doing something else.
Going to war against NATO-trained and -equipped troops doesn't benefit them. There are much easier opponents in developing nations that they'd probably prefer to be fighting against.
That is true but that doesn't bode well for these developing countries either, no one benefits from Wanger taking over Russia, it can go wrong very fast.
BooksRight, and it also means that Russia is fighting on two fronts, no?
I don't anticipate this lasting that long. It might be over very soon. Putin will not tolerate any more of this and will go absolutely brutal on the entire leadership if he has to.
kunevIf this goes on long enough it will most likely fuck up morale and put a considerable strain on the actual state army. That might give Ukraine time to at the very least recover. If the internal devastation is big enough whoever comes on as the next dictator might even have to technically end "the special operation" because there's no resources to keep it going and they could do so while saving face, because it's technically Putin and Shoigu's fault for mismanaging everything. The totally best possible scenario is this happens, it takes them a few years to build the military back up and meanwhile Ukraine manages to get both in the EU and NATO, at which point attacking them again becomes a whole different deal.
That's most likely a terribly unreasonably optimistic scenario. More likely whatever it is that's happening right now takes a few days, either Putin or Prigozhin dies and things keep on going somewhat the same, regardless of who's the de facto dictator. The country is mostly being ran by shady business interests that depend on the dictator, but if they agree on installing a new one could do it.
LOL @ me... "a few days"... 😄😄😄
And it seems.like Progozhin moght not be the one dying, but Shoigu will either be defenstrated or at least sent off to a Siberian prison.