User DeletedJun 22, 2023

Box A has $1,000,000. Box B is opaque and its contents depend on a machine that predicts the future... (Title has not enough space space, Question is in text below.)

https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/post/125970

Box A has $1,000,000. Box B is opaque and its contents depend on a machine that predicts the future... (Title has not enough space, Question is in text below.) - Divisions by zero

If the machine predicts that you will take both Boxes A and B, Box B will be empty. But if the machine predicts that you will take Box B only, then Box B will contain $1,000,000,000. The machine has already done it’s prediction and the contents of box B has already been set. Which box/boxes do you take? To reiterate, you choices are: -Box A and B -Box B only (“Box A only” is not an option because no one is that stupid lol) Please explain your reasoning. My answer is: ::: spoiler spoiler I mean I’d choose Box B only, I’d just gamble on the machine being right. If the machine is wrong, I’ll break that thing. ::: ----- This is based on Newcomb’s Paradox (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb’s_paradox [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox]), but I increased the money to make it more interesting.

Show threadSordidJun 22, 2023

Both! Critically, the contents of box B depend on the machine's prediction, not on whether it was correct or not (i.e. not on your subsequent choice). So it's effectively a 50/50 coin toss and irrelevant to the decision-making process. Let's break down the possibilities:

Machine predicts I take B only, box B contains $1B:

  • I take B only - I get $1B.
  • I take both - I get $1.001B

Machine predicts I take both, box B is empty:

  • I take B only - I get nothing.
  • I take both - I get $1M.

Regardless of what the machine predicts, taking both boxes produces a better result than taking only B. The question can be restated as "Do you take $1M plus a chance to win $1B or would you prefer $0 plus the same chance to win $1B?", in which case the answer becomes intuitively obvious.

Show threadFlowVoid
But if it's true that the machine can perfectly predict what you will choose, then by definition your choice will be the same its prediction. In which case, you should choose one box.
Jun 23, 2023 at 12:32amWeb
Show threadannegreenJun 23, 2023
Though OP never actually stated that the machine can perfectly predict the future. If that’s the case, then yes, you should just take box B. But we’re not given any information about how it makes its prediction. If @[email protected] is correct in assuming it’s a 50-50, then their strategy of taking both is best. It really depends on how the machine makes its prediction.
@Sordid - sh.itjust.works

Show threadSordidJun 23, 2023
No information regarding the machine's accuracy is provided, but the fact that you are asked to make a choice implies that it is not perfect. If the machine can perfectly predict your future choice, then that choice is an illusion. You have no free will, and the question is meaningless to begin with.