I'm still sticking with my call that *long-term*, decentralized social media will be the winner. Too many of the world's greatest Android and iOS mobile development teams are now building for the fediverse. Too many of the world's best *human* moderation, privacy, and safety, experts are on the fediverse. The user benefits are too aligned, despite companies not having the usual metrics and analytics to optimize the experience.

Fighting the fediverse is like fighting a flood by punching it.

Yes, Mastodon still has huge problems with "HOA racism" and user safety. But there is a "path to green" for all of these problems. And people (including me! 🙋🏿‍♂️) are working on them.

Yes, the current version of ActivityPub is not ready for what's coming. But again, too many of the world's best SREs and API designers are now poking ActivityPub with a stick again, now that the scale constraints have changed.

If Fediverse wins, dozens (hundreds?) of mobile apps and services have a continued path to be sustainable businesses. Yes, some of the big ones are VC funded. But many of the others are not. Unapologetically: I like helping to create paths for user benefit centered, trust based, innovative, companies to thrive.

The Fediverse is messy. Just like democracy is messy. But they're both ideas that are too powerful to ignore. They tap into too much human power of both intellect and inspiration.

@justinmwhitaker

I don't think that's true.

I think it can continue to be messy and chaotic, and Fediverse still wins.🤷🏿‍♂️

I think that big corporations need Fediverse more than Fediverse needs big corporations. On current trajectory, the net flow of users is away from centralized platforms and towards the fedi.

I think that Meta entering fedi now, is an indicator that they see where this is all headed, and understand that they need to get there early. Like with Instagram. And WhatsApp.

@mekkaokereke It's going to stay chaotic and messy...but servers, bandwidth, and development cost money.

That net flow away from free ad/VC/data sale supported networks to charity driven servers maintained by volunteers or coalitions of the willing isn't supportable long term.

At some point, Mastodon, or whatever the site du jour is, is going to need a cash inflow to survive.

@justinmwhitaker @mekkaokereke

This point needs a lot more emphasis. Instance admins, mods, devs, maintainers, b/w, h/w, s/w, heat dissipation, security, payment mechanisms all need to be funded.

Migration marketing needs to help migrators understand the value of their "ad/VC/data sale" free use of the Fediverse. Opt-in ad/data sale could be an ecosystem service for some migrators.

Broadly, an extractive social ecosystem siphons away much, much more currency to crypto-fail schemes, executive salaries, and investor returns than paying instances a living income when delivering their services. That "net flow" is part of the evolutionary force for creating services in a non-extractive social ecosystem.

Running an instance should be a gig that can support a comfortable life, at a minimum. Attracting users to an instance that is creating ecosystem services is a useful force for sustaining the ecosystem. Useful services spread throughout instances.

The "At some point" point is now. Set user expectations now.

@CynthesisToday @justinmwhitaker @mekkaokereke Running an instance should be a hobby, and done for fun.

It shouldn't be a "gig". It should be much akin to installing a hose reel on a house, and putting the hose on there to use.

Once you start commercializing social interactions, you've already killed your social network and directed it towards the worst of what we've already seen.

@ubergeek @CynthesisToday @justinmwhitaker @mekkaokereke Have you taken a hard look at the legal requirements of running an instance? You’re legally at risk if you don’t comply with DMCA, COPPA, taking steps to deal with CSAM, the EU’s GDPR and soon the DSA, and a lot more. Accidental breaching any of these as a hobbyist admin could destroy your life, and ignorance is not a defence. Sadly, I don’t think hobbyist servers are the answer.

See eg
https://denise.dreamwidth.org/91757.html