What’s happening in Turkey today is not some exotic oddity. It’s a forewarning of exactly what can (and is) happening in the West.

Does this timeline seem familiar?

1. Neoliberals get elected. They fill their coffers while alienating a whole swath of society who they deem too far beneath them to matter.

2. A religious fundamentalist arises who speaks to those marginalised people, telling them they’ve been wronged (they have) and that he will make it right.

3. He gets elected.

4. He stays.

…The only point we haven’t seen (yet) in the West with the current rise of fascism across both sides of the Atlantic is the last one.

That’s not because it cannot happen here.

It‘s just because it hasn’t happened yet.

2/3

Notice where it starts though – and try not to ignore it or rationalise it away even if your salary depends on it – because this is the bit that’s going to hurt:

Neoliberalism is the slippery slope to fascism.

3/3

@aral Historically, what we consider Liberalism today has always gone hand in hand with nationalism and totalitarianism. It's only been in the last 150 years or so that we had labels for Liberalism and Fascism.

It's a deeper trend that's hard to research.

@aral
*me giving Kier Starmer the side eye as he bangs on about controlling immigration*
Yeah.
@aral The spectrum of politics is circular in nature in many ways.

@aral
People in the West, esp the US, are not very good at observing anything outside their borders

You are right to share the warning.

@aral I'd hate for my country to be taken over by someone from either of those sides.
@aral hmmm... did the people in power before Erdogan, who has been in power himself for 20 years, actually classify as neo-liberals? And what were the Turks tired of? Economical growth? Your analysis seems a bit simplistic to me. Could the grip Erdogan has over every aspect of people's lives, namely the press, education, the courts, and so on, be a more plausible explanation?
@Disputatore @aral It depends. But privaisation has been a key feature in this country after 1980 coup, and it did not actually stop with the rise of Erdoğan. What the "Turks" and Kurds who voted for Erdoğan was tired of was the hyperinflation caused by economic crisis and/related to mishandling of Great Istanbul Earthquake in the early 00s. Erdoğan was an underdog before 2002.
@livinghell @aral so would you agree with the claim that neo-liberal policies before Erdoğan are the justification for his endurance in power and his last re-election?
@Disputatore @aral Yes actually. Its too complex to get into here. But people who were left behind felt the devatating force of economic austerity. It goes way back too, the solitude of people caused by general violence but by especially economical collapse caused people to form an emotional connection to their "saviour". It largely still lasts, and this is why Erdoğan cant get the younger voters. Around the turn of the century, almost every political got disgraced while people lost their livelihood and finances. Erdoğan was there to sell himself as a savoiur and as a father figure.
@livinghell @aral so, those disfranchised people are better now than they were before? And were the policies neo-liberal then but they aren't now? And were the results bad because of neo-liberalism or simply because of poor governance and corruption?

@Disputatore @aral They gor marginally better between 2002 - circa 2012, during Erdoğan gov. Then it got nose dive again, but last three years we are again approachig 2002 levels. Erdoğan keeps the hold of the government because of all the social capital he accumulated during those years. Also, as you said, he controls most of the media.

Results of those policy decisions was bad, simoly because they privatised most of the public utilities. I ll give an example. Today, de facto, education is not a public right in Turkey. State schools are all underfunded and a huge portion of them are converted to religious education schools. Neither secular nor religious high schools, except a couple, has any chance of getting you into a good university no matter the level of the student. For profit study centers are everywhere. So, Islamic sects grew who give cheap or free extra education. One of them was Gülen's. They even stole exam results etc. People were left behind by neoliberalism, they turned to islamic "tribalism" (ideological nepotism, really.) and corruption. And this last is tied to our current fascism.

@livinghell @aral all of that is very interesting. As you described, Erdoğan's education politics are, in fact, capping most people's growth potential. He also continued with the privatisation of public companies. And he threw people into the hands of religious sects which, in turn, most probably support his government, helping to keep him in power.

@Disputatore How exactly would you characterise the period starting with Özal and ANAP if not neoliberal?

My “analysis” is simply my lived experience as the child of Turkish parents.

@aral so if prior to Erdoğan the economical policy was neo-liberal, what did he changed it to that secured his 20 years in power?

@aral

"telling them they’ve been wronged (they have) and that he will make it right"

I wish more liberals would understand that. I knew Hillary was done when she called Trumpers "a basket of deplorables." They might have been, but she was essentially calling them "white trash." Huge trigger especially in the South. She wasn't going to try and convince them, she was going to cut them out. Trump was lying but he did promise them jobs.

@Woodchaz @aral I have to disagree, she was never going to get those votes, maybe she provided more motivation for them to get out the vote and that possibly hurt her, but where she really failed was to turn out the vote within her own party and independents. Many back then thought of Trump as a joke and fell to complacency. He only had the numbers to win because people thought he couldn't and they stayed home (or they were protesting Bernie not getting the candidacy).
@keithpnw @aral
That's all part of it of course, but think how close it was. The well was also poisoned years ago by people like Limbaugh. They also brought much of it on themselves. But liberal and especially northern liberal condescension toward the South has been stoking resentment since before I was born. James Baldwin mentioned that in one of his speeches. It makes them putty in a reactionary's hands. Southern progressives and the poor pay a price for that arrogance.
@Woodchaz @keithpnw @aral
Blaming Democrats for the way the 2016 election turned out has nothing to do with the campaign. Obama failed to pay close enough attention to our threats overseas because his entire career had been focused domestically which allowed Putin free rein to subvert our democracy using his allies like General Flynn.
@GreenFire @keithpnw @aral
It's all of those things of course. Limbaugh poisoned the well for Hillary for decades. The people she called deplorables brought a lot of this on themselves and us. What bothers me is how out of touch the Democrats were. They didn't understand just how hot the country already was, especially in Texas. I was in the Central Texas and it was super tense even before she announced. She might've lost anyway, but she didn't need to give Trump that ammo.
@aral point #1 might need some more research.
@aral are you talking about Gül of Sezer? Or Ataturk lol
@aral
In the Netherlands we have a tory party that is 12 years in power because the fascists of #pvv #bbb and #fvd grab up the marginalized with their "climate change does not exists all evil are Islamic people " talk thus keeping the left from overtaking neoliberalm in elections.
Where in a dead alley of capitalism

@aral

Neoliberalism inevitably leads to a selected few robbing a state of its funds. No regulation means the big fish eat all the small fish until they're the only ones left.
And since the masses usually don't make the connection, because media most of the times belongs to those few capitalists and education is being kept suppressed with poor funding, they opt to fight amongst each other, be it on religious or cultural grounds, instead of simply getting rid of the root of the problem -> the capitalists.

Those capitalists then choose some useful idiot and let him rule the country while securing their continued profits.

In other words, accumulation of obscene amounts of wealth is the underlying core problem as it creates severe social inequality.

@aral Iran, ca 1979. Though the Shah wasn’t a neoliberal. Same capitalist club of looters though.
@aral we need to kick turkiye out of NATO

@aral I think we make a mistake when we treat capitalism or socialism as political systems or belief systems. They aren’t.

Both are just tools to convert resources(human and material) into things people want with different pros/cons.

The Texas energy grid is interesting because it’s essentially free market and most of the USA is tightly regulated. Texas gets cheap power and a high renewable mix. They also have grid instability and price gouging.

@aral Sounds, and was, a whole lot better than what we have now, or ever have had.

@aral

I don't buy this. Religious fundamentalists fill their coffers and alienate who swaths of society just as much. The difference is the religious fundamentalist removed all opposition at all levels of society. He stays because people are afraid of retaliation for going against him and his people.

@aral

Alternative to #1: Liberals get elected.

- The religious nuts and bigots don't like talk of equality and religious freedoms, extremism rises.

- Liberals (and the media) are happy enriching themselves and too afraid of rocking the boat to stop the fascists.

- By the time they realize it, half the population has been radicalized and the fascists are unstoppable.

@aral Aral, There were many many voices just as passionate as you trying to "wake" people in the lead up to Germany's bout with Nazism. Why do you think this will play out any differently?
@Userd503 It might not. Doesn’t mean we don’t try. What’s giving up going to achieve?

@aral Well, yes, with the slight difference, that not all places in the West are religious enough, that the fascist needs to pull on a religious T-Shirt.

We (proudly) vote for the fascists without them having to lower themselves so far as to carry around a bible.

@aral The part of 2016 that I don't feel has been discussed enough, or rarely gets any light shown on it is how Trump ran. Primary he was a pretty decent joke, but speaking enough to pique a portion of the populace's interest. Then when the General came and the 'Berners' felt cheated/hurt/betrayed Trump took advantage of the outrage and started touting Populace views while also touting/verbally contemplating Bernie views, which lead to the Blue vote not splitting only into 3rd party candidates but also into Red votes.

Once elected he was obviously not what he ran as in the General but the damage was done.

He took advantage of every facet of people feeling wronged, and we almost didn't get him out. And we struggle to even have a valid discussion about this outside of finger pointing and echo chamber-ing.
@aral 5. The only competitor in the election panders to the right-wing nationalists, so any attempt to oust him would get someone worse anyway?

@ddlyh Let’s do a little experiment: under your real name (the one on your passport), reply to this with a post that insults both Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu.

Then let’s get you a ticket to Turkey and see which one you get arrested for.

At that point you should have the same understanding I do about which is worse, even if the alternative isn’t perfect by any stretch of the imagination.

@aral

That is how fascism got to power in 1933… democracy should protect itsself better against antidemocratic elements… people have ill memory…

And happening again as we speak… neoliberalism has driven inequality and the populist far right is prospering on the dissatisfaction. Plain to see what the next step can be…

@aral This is a very plausible explanation, moreover one which I find to be disconcerting, as I can see the same playbook applying to some degree in France after the end of Emmanuel Macron's second term in office in 2027. He and his neo-liberal fellow-travellers have alienated large parts of French society, and Marine Le Pen, runner up twice in a row, is just waiting in the wings.