My decision about whether to try Bluesky depends on what everyone else does. I just want to be where everyone else is, and not be around too many Nazis. My needs are simple.
For whatever it’s worth, I’m https://bsky.app/profile/mattblaze.bsky.social on Bluesky. We’ll see.
Bluesky Social

I have no idea whether I’ll stick around there. I don’t want a zillion different accounts to check all the time, so whatever ends up feeling like home is probably where I’ll stay.

There’s a lot I like about this place and the fediverse concept, but frankly, I still feel like a slightly unwelcome guest here six months in. Who knows.

@mattblaze BS' "moderation" model and issues relating to control of nodes by administrators (or not) suggest that it will face a variety of content-related regulatory and other challenges that could quickly become chaotic as its userbase grows. Too soon to be sure, of course.
@lauren I suspect there’s no sustainable model for social media platforms. But it may be possible to have something usable and worthwhile for a while before it inevitably implodes. That might be ok.
@mattblaze Social media as we know it is probably doomed. Details and timeline TBA.
@lauren @mattblaze
"...as we know it...". I agree. There's obviously a need for a centralized communication app, but it will need to be rethought and may even need new technology not yet discovered.
@lauren @mattblaze Imminent death of USENET predicted. Film at 11.
@oclsc @mattblaze And die, for all practical purposes, it did. But it led the way to much worse. More to the point, the regulatory environment is utterly different now -- for all routine purposes it didn't exist for Usenet back then.
@lauren We got, what, 8-10 years out of Twitter before it started to turn into a disinformation weapon, and another few years after that before it completely imploded, so that's not a bad run. If Mastodon, or Bluesky, or whatever last half that long, that's still something. Anything still usable after 5 years might be like a spacecraft that keeps sending signals back after its batteries were supposed to be dead already. An unexpected bonus.
@mattblaze
@lauren
I've had accounts on various Fediverse servers (mostly Mastodon, but also others) since 2017.
And I wasn't in the first wave, or any of the first few waves.
I think we've succesfully passed that 5 year limit you talk of.