Jason SanchezWrote a bit about DeSantis's efforts to end tenure in Florida and the effects it'll have on my current state. https://jasonsanchez82.substack.com/p/desantis-vs-tenure
I'm very bearish on Florida's long-term prospects. The leadership here is really bad, short-sighted, and caught up in nonsense culture war stuff while ignoring the actual gigantic problems the state is facing.
For starters, the State is making it very difficult for LGTBQA folks to live here. It is actively hostile against them. That sucks for very obvious reasons but it's also self-defeating to drive away a part of the population. Florida relies on growth and tourism. That's it. The state's moves hurt both.
Florida is largely ignoring climate change issues on a state level. But insurance companies are not. Homeowners insurance is very expensive in the state and will continue to get more expensive. The coastlines are basically uninsurable at this point. The state has no answers there. Only the wealthy will be able to afford a home on the coast without insurance (or with extreme insurance rates).
But people probably shouldn't be living RIGHT on the coast anyway! Sea level rise means that parts of the coast are already underwater during high tide. Storm surges are more powerful during hurricanes as well. Living on the coast can be great but boy is it a gamble! The risk is losing your home and your life and the odds of that happening aren't terribly low these days. Doesn't seem worth it.
Instead of dealing with that, DeSantis is going to war with Disney, the most important company and arguably the biggest driver of revenue in the entire state. SEEMS REALLY STUPID TO ME TO DO THIS! Disney holds the ultimate card in this battle: leaving. A bunch of states would line up with buckets of cash to lure Disney away from Florida. Florida's economy would absolutely crater. Disney is a huge draw, at worst a 1b to the beaches' 1a
Btw, the gulf side beaches, at least in the winter when folks from up north come to enjoy them, now regularly have red tide, big algae blooms that kill fish and make it disgusting to swim in the water. Who wants to go to a beach that smells like garbage? DeSantis and co. should be trying to fix that instead of fighting one of the reasons (Disney) many people come to the state!
On the education front, DeSantis is making the state way less attractive to academia which will in turn make it less attractive to students which will in turn make it less attractive to businesses that want to attract high level talent. https://jasonsanchez82.substack.com/p/desantis-vs-tenure
I've been frequently critical of Florida and my home of Gainesville for not making it easier to build more homes to accommodate a growing population. But I'm starting to wonder if long term, Florida's population will maintain its growth trajectory. It's a beautiful state and it can be a great place to live, but leadership here is actively trying to tank it on multiple fronts. They keep at it and Florida will stop growing. For a state that makes nothing, that'll be just the latest disaster.
Bob Nystrom@jasonsanchez82 Between the Boomers reaching the end of the their lifespan, climate change making hurricanes and flooding worse, and now state politics being actively citizen hostile, now seems like a great time to short Florida real estate.
@munificent i think you're right. The market is way overheated as it is. Florida's long-term outlook is bad.