Some people will never leave Twitter because it's familiar, they're an established journalist addicted to feeling important, or because they're right-wing chuds who want to see Musk and Truth Social Redux succeed.

Some will migrate to Bluesky for Twitter without Musk. Some will stick with Mastodon on principle or because it's good enough. And then there's some also rans. But I don't think Mastodon or Twitter are going anywhere anytime soon.

Twitter's entire problem is Elon Musk, the debt he saddled the company with, and the intentionally awful decisions he makes. But it still has the most users and is by far the easiest to directly monetize.

That may relegate Bluesky and Mastodon to niche platforms for people who want to avoid ads and other shit. And that could be a lot of people! But it may never dislodge Twitter from its current place of importance.

Only Musk can fly that rocket into the ground.

In the meantime, Bluesky is going to get attention because people are attracted to a shiny new thing and frankly, most social media users don't want to think that hard about what platform they're on.

The people who will leave Twitter typically want the alternative to be extremely Twitter-like, easy to use, with big names they're familiar with, and preferably slick to look at.

They don't care about decentralization or who owns or controls what.

Mastodon's weakness in all of this, if you want to call it that, is that it doesn't particularly care about being popular or convenient. It doesn't care if it has a bunch of celebrities. It almost doesn't want people using it at all if it changes the existing "vibe" or culture. Its longtime user base is perfectly content with its quirkiness, and the developer is disinterested in implementing features Twitter people want and expect.

@gwynnion

What's the goal of following celebs?

Are they spreading handfuls of "celebritude" over all their followers, so they can emanate a celeb smell when they are commuting on a crowded train?

@GustavinoBevilacqua @gwynnion You don't have to understand WHY people want to follow celebs. You just have to understand THAT people want to follow celebs.

A good way to recruit people is to give them things they want. That is a thing they want.

@blakeyrat @gwynnion

If people WANT to jump into a volcano (which I consider a great idea anyway) there must be people EDUCATING them that it could be dangerous, not just satisfying whatever whimsical they want.

I don't give a fuck to recruit sheepies: I want to recruit FIGHTERS to educate people.

@GustavinoBevilacqua @gwynnion Educate people by pummeling them in a fight? I'm sure that strategy's really successful.

Anyway, anybody who's using the word "sheeple" non-ironically has had their brain blended into a fine goo so I now entirely regret responding to you. Good day.