To attack, the attackers will want Mastodon to consolidate. Powers will want few servers they need to exploit.
Small tech companies will launch "friendly" "easy-to-use" proprietary Mastodon instances, which will look community friendly. They will buy up communities that they can.
Major tech companies will embrace, extend, and extinguish to kill off large sections of the network.
"Figures playing games", will continue, cf: I Hunt Sys Admins
https://theintercept.com/document/2014/03/20/hunt-sys-admins/
Yes, email is a great example.
They just flooded email with junk so people would consolidate.
For years, nearly all spam was from (easily) exploited windows workstations spammers compromised. This helped Microsoft and Google.
Yet admins weren't allowed to fight back. I could have written a script to power off every Windows machine that hit my servers that I knew was compromised. But that would have been illegal. So one just had to sit there and be attacked.