200mW making it (10MHz, 1/4 wave vertical, WSPR, daughter's callsign) comfortably across at -25dB/2500Hz to Hawai'i at 05:22UT this morning.
Given the detection limit is -34dB for WSPR, as little as 25mW ought to just make it.
If I was at the beach, much less power would make it; I've crossed the Atlantic on 50 microwatts in past tests.