Mastodawn

Ketan Joshi Mar 28, 2023

Me and a few other climate folks on Twitter have noticed a very clear new prominence of climate deniers and delayers

So with some help, I gathered up some data and checked - it turns out that denial/delay, pro-fossil disinformation accounts have seen massive growth in their audience, while pro-climate-action accounts have either stagnated or shrunk.

Elon Musk is reshaping Twitter into a safe space for right-wingers, and in doing so, empowering climate change deniers, delayers and pro-fossil advocates more than ever before.

New post:

https://ketanjoshi.co/2023/03/28/musk-is-remaking-twitter-into-a-climate-denier-sanctuary/

Musk is remaking Twitter into a climate denier sanctuary

I got some data that analyses how climate deniers have changed their audience size, relative to pro-climate accounts, on Musk’s Twitter. It’s….not good.

Ketan Joshi

serklarvel Mar 29, 2023

@ketan ironically, Elon's fortune comes from a company that sells electric cars, which is supposed to reduce carbon gas emitions

Hypx Mar 29, 2023

@serklarvel @ketan Battery electric cars are just a greenwashing exercise. The real future will be #hydrogen powered cars.

serklarvel Mar 29, 2023

@Hypx @ketan agree, I don't believe electrical cars are the solution

Blake Leonard Mar 29, 2023

@serklarvel @Hypx @ketan The future is going to be (or maybe just should be) good public transportation, and "small" vehicles like bikes, skateboards, and scooters :)
As for hydrogen fuel, I feel like it's best suited for use as backup power, but not as the primary power source since it's inefficient and costly (it takes way more power to produce than it puts out).
I don't have any idea what a good primary power source for civilian vehicles like cars should be, if not batteries (which blow up).

Hypx Mar 29, 2023

@blake @serklarvel @ketan The point of hydrogen is that it neither depends on fossil fuels nor excess raw materials. If we are going to have civilian vehicles (which face it, we will), it must be something like hydrogen cars.

The counterarguments are really just FUD from battery car companies. They don't even want you to know that a fuel cell is an electrochemical cell, and that FCEVs are EVs too. There's very little downside compared to other EVs.

Grassroots Joe Mar 29, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan
Re: fossil-fuel dependence
It's true that H2 production doesn't have to depend on fossil-fuels, but it currently does.

It's important to state that H2 as a green fuel requires a very large increase in renewable electricity to use to produce green hydrogen.

Building a retail hydrogen distribution system is also needed to be the auto fuel solution. Easier or harder than charging stations?

Hypx Mar 29, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan Let's just say BEVs will never be the solution for everyone and there must be an alternative.

Grassroots Joe Mar 30, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan What is undoubtedly true is that hydrogen will/must be instrumental in the decarbonization of heavy industry, air and sea transportation.
Beyond that I think is very much up in the air depending on how much green hydrogen is available how soon.
EV adoption could go much faster than H2 availability depending on several factors.
There is also the future grid stability benefit of distributed energy storage in millions of garages to be considered.

Hypx Mar 30, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan BEV adoption does not follow green electricity FYI. In many cases, they are just being powered by fossil fuels. We should not have a double standard here.

Using car batteries as a way to stabilize the grid is an incredibly dumb idea. Those batteries are not designed for that. Meanwhile, hydrogen for grid energy storage completely solves the problem.

Grassroots Joe Mar 30, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan No, EV adoption does not follow green electricity, but EV use gets more green with each increment of renewable generation.
Hydrogen production can only get green when there is a lot more renewable electricity to support it.
EVs and incremental renewable production is here now.
Using car batteries as grid storage is anything but dumb.
Distributed batteries in appliances as well as EVs will play an important role.
This is from 2 yrs ago - https://www.volts.wtf/p/rooftop-solar-and-home-batteries#details

Rooftop solar and home batteries make a clean grid vastly more affordable

Distributed energy has often been seen as a more expensive alternative to utility-scale power plants, but new modeling reveals that it is actually a vital complement. (If you don't want to read, you can listen!)

Volts

Hypx Mar 30, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan That's the double standard I'm talking about. The exact same thing is true with hydrogen. In fact, it is more true since you can immediately switch to green hydrogen for fuel even when it is still a small part of production.

If you think using car batteries for energy storage is a good idea, you will be dumbfounded by what is possible with hydrogen. The word "petawatt-hour" suddenly becomes a real thing.

Grassroots Joe Mar 30, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan
It's all about marginal cost and adoption.
Let me know when there are tax incentives to buy a fuel cell car and I can put a hydrogen tank in my garage for about the cost of a 220V outlet - no, wait, nevermind...
As for distributed grid storage, including EVs, think whatever you like, it won't be here overnight, but it is definitely coming.
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/distributed-energy-resources-for-net-zero-an-asset-or-a-hassle-to-the-electricity-grid

Distributed energy resources for net zero: An asset or a hassle to the electricity grid? – Analysis - IEA

Distributed energy resources for net zero: An asset or a hassle to the electricity grid? - A commentary by Doyob Kim, Alyssa Fischer

IEA

Hypx Mar 30, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan You are not being serious about the topic. A hydrogen refueling station will refuel thousands of cars, but a home charging station just one or two.

Grid energy storage will just be hydrogen for the most part. The economics of hydrogen will continuously push against BEVs.

Grassroots Joe Mar 30, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan No, I was being hyperbolic. The point is that hydrogen requires substantial infrastructure investment that has not started to be made and I've not seen evidence of it being planned for personal transportation. If you have, I'm all ears.

As for distributed grid storage, I've provided a couple of sources showing both research and early deployment of solutions to integrate distributed battery storage into the grid. Below is another. It's definitely not just EVs ...

Grassroots Joe Mar 30, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan but it is also EVs.

Maybe H2 will end up more cost effective and win that market, but right now there is much more attention to H2 for heavy industry and commercial air transportation.

"Electrical vehicles (EV) and EV chargers—Since they use batteries, electric vehicles can either draw electricity from the grid or provide stored electricity back to the grid to help balance resources. Several utilities are testing these capabilities on their systems through ...

Hypx Mar 30, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan Right now, society is wasting billions on an idea that is showing serious limits and likely isn't even sustainable. It is like going back 10 years and trying to convince everyone that the ICE car is the answer because "right now" there aren't many EVs.

Grassroots Joe Mar 30, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan Show me evidence that hydrogen is being advanced as a personal transportation solution & I'll be happy to acknowledge it as a possibile solution.
To be clear, I've not argued that it shouldn't be, nor that EVs are the holy grail, only that there isn't a drive to towards hydrogen for personal transport & there definitely is a drive for it for other sectors.
And I've documented active work to incorporate EVs into grid storage.
Is there something that says different?

Hypx Mar 31, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan Both hydrogen personal cars and refueling stations exist. These are fully viable cars right now. You are simply not aware of the progress. It mirrors anti-EV skepticism from a decade ago.

Grassroots Joe Mar 31, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan
So there are 3 FCEVs models currently available, there is an FCEV dealer 700 miles away in Cookeville, TN & the nearest place to fuel up is 500 miles away in Quebec, the 2nd closest 2300 miles away in San Diego.
The dealer looks like a (heavy?) truck dealer & another heavy truck dealer looks to be expanding to 51 locations.
Car sales sound like mostly to fleets in CA.

Hypx Mar 31, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan Just because the infrastructure hasn't spread to your local area doesn't mean it isn't happening. It's the same story with BEVs initially. Eventually, it will reach your area, and at some point the BEV will be driven in obscurity by superior technology.

Grassroots Joe Mar 31, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan
Another country and a portion of a single state on the other coast is a rather extreme version of "not my area". It's not like the Boston - DC corridor is a backwater.
I can see FCEVs having a market in rural areas & long haul trucking, but EVs (& ebikes too) are on the hockey stick world wide & will be around for a long time.

Hypx Mar 31, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan Even Boston-DC had zero EVs. For whatever reason, certain parts of the US did not invest in hydrogen. But this is changing.

Growth is exponential and happens much faster than what people think. Hydrogen will be available everywhere relatively soon.

Grassroots Joe Mar 31, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan IF growth is exponential, then yes, it will propagate quickly. I'm not buying that it is exponential, but time will certainly tell.
I've no dog in this hunt & don't care so long as decarbonization is fast & complete.
That said, I much prefer plugging in my car when needed and not having to stop to "fill up" my car except for the handful of occasions/year when I travel more than 200 miles round trip.
Absent significant cost difference, I'll be an EV/ebike owner.

Hypx Mar 31, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan Growth is almost always exponential. This won’t be any different.

FCEVs will likely be far cheaper. Plugging in will probably be about short-term trips in a PHEV setup. It does not make economic sense for it to be the only solution.

Grassroots Joe Apr 1, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan Only when there are no hiccups in bringing down the cost of both cars and fuel and in the fuel being green.

Oh, and it looks like there may be more competition in the heavy industry space than I thought.
https://www.volts.wtf/p/why-electrifying-industrial-heat#details

Why electrifying industrial heat is such a big deal

A quarter of all energy humans use comes in the form of heat for high-temperature industrial processes. Industrial heat has long been considered "difficult to decarbonize," but a new class of thermal batteries promises to harness renewable energy to the task. I talk with one of the entrepreneurs involved.

Volts

Hypx Apr 1, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan You cannot deny progress. It will eventually happen and likely be exponential too.

No reason why I will believe some random person on this subject.

Grassroots Joe Apr 1, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan None of us know if hydrogen will fulfill its apparent promise.
There are more than a few hurdles to be crossed before we'll know if it will be sufficiently better than EVs to supplant them for personal transportation.
There are clearly competitors for some of the other energy markets for hydrogen.
Do you know that hydrogen will beat them out? I sure don't.
What happens if Rondo succeeds in helping produce zero-carbon bio-fuels cheaper than green hydrogen?

Hypx Apr 2, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan There's literally only one thing left to prove which is overall costs. Except that is the one thing that is nearly guaranteed to be solved, just like it was solved with everything else via mass production.

Again, due to lack of raw material needs, it will be cheaper to own than BEVs.

Biofuels are the same idea as green hydrogen with way more steps. And it doesn't scale either. It's not likely to ever work out.

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan Listen to the podcast; the viability of zero-carbon biofuel not withstanding, Rondo is **definitely** a competitor for industry, both light and heavy.

The raw materials for EVs are only needed once, and when they've been around long enough for a sizable recycling loop, the need to mine more will greatly decrease & perhaps prices as well.
Will the price of hydrogen be low enough to match the cost of electricity + car cost differential? It's got a long way to go.

Hypx Apr 4, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan Biofuels contain a lot of steps, including the part where it is part of a complex agriculture process. It is just happening at a such a scale that it is cheap. Hydrogen is vastly more simple.

Grassroots Joe Apr 4, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan As per my edit, biofuels isn't the challenge.
Producing sufficient completely green hydrogen at a competitive price soon enough is the much bigger challenge.
https://www.powermag.com/should-we-really-use-renewable-electricity-to-make-green-hydrogen-not-always/

And, FCEV's have complexities BEVs don't. Not a huge deal, but a marginal piece of the puzzle not to be ignored.
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a41103863/hydrogen-cars-fcev/

It's anything but a slam dunk how that will all pan out in the marketplace.

Should We Really Use Renewable Electricity to Make Green Hydrogen? Not Always

There’s a growing belief that hydrogen will play a key role in lowering CO 2 emissions. However, there are several caveats in realizing that vision, and in some cases, hydrogen may not be the right choice

POWER Magazine

Hypx Apr 4, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan That's just complete nonsense. Hydrogen is made with a single step. With biofuels you have to grow food and then convert it into ethanol or biodiesel using multiple steps. Ultimately "efficiency" numbers is something like 1% of possible solar energy. It is the worst idea yet conceived.

An FCEV is an EV. It is nearly as simple as a BEV, and uses far less raw material.

Grassroots Joe Apr 4, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan Which part of "biofuels isn't the challenge" did you miss?
Just as simple?
"HFCVs have the same high-voltage battery packs as a hybrid, plug-in hybrid, or electric car, but they also have one or more armored, carbon-fiber tanks to hold pure hydrogen under extremely high pressure: 10,000 pounds per square inch (psi)"
and
"California has a set of rules to ensure any escaping hydrogen doesn’t run the risk of an explosion" when working on the tank or fuel-cell stack.

Hypx Apr 4, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan There hasn't been a single tank failure, nor a significant hydrogen car fire. All signs suggest that this is a solved problem.

Ultimately, it is just a tank made from carbon fiber, and as long as we can mass produce them, they should be straightforward components.

Grassroots Joe Apr 4, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan Avoiding the highlighted issues. The use of hydrogen fuel requires special handling at each stage of the process to ensure there won't be any accidents, including in the mechanics' shop.
This is not in any way insurmountable, but, it puts up to question a claim that production, maintenance & operation of hydrogen fuel-cell cars is inherently simpler/better/destined to be cheaper to operate than BEVs & will therefore win in the marketplace.

Hypx Apr 4, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan Same is true of batteries. Many people have died in battery fires. As long as people learn to deal with them problem, it won't be a problem. If anything, hydrogen will be easier than batteries.

Grassroots Joe Apr 5, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan
Which has zip to do with the cost of avoiding hydrogen explosions in auto repair facilities and retail distribution outlets.

Whatever costs there may be for EV car production is already baked in.

PS The fire problem is with ebikes & scooters, not cars; completely irrelevant to the auto market competition question.

Hypx Apr 5, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan There hasn't been any kind of serious hydrogen car fire in any situation. At best, some facilities have caught fire but those are usually the result of negligence or incompetence. No different than any other kind of fire.

All battery vehicles have had fires. That includes e-bikes and BEVs. There are no exceptions.

Grassroots Joe Apr 6, 2023

@Hypx @blake @serklarvel @ketan
Since you continue to avoid the point, hydrogen has substantial potential cost and complexity issues that could preclude it's adoption for personal transportation, we are done here.
Muting the conversation.

Hypx Apr 6, 2023

@joeinwynnewood @blake @serklarvel @ketan And you are profoundly in denial. It is going to be far cheaper and safer than BEVs. Guys like you are just carrying the bathwater for BEV companies at dire expense to the environment.