G. Willow WilsonI've been trending in this direction anyway, but next month Twitter will become an announcement-only platform for me. Personal prediction: there will be no mass migration to the fediverse or spoutible or anywhere else. Instead, a return to internet 1.5 norms is underway: smaller, more niche communities, many of them walled gardens. The global public square/water cooler is on its way out as an ideal.
Why do I think this? Partly bc Internet 1.5 platforms are having a renaissance, Reddit and Discord in particular. Most people don't want the entire planet to follow the conversations they have with their friends. That is a useful discoverability feature for content creators/media people (myself included) BUT there are ways to manage. Ppl will still go to Twitter, FB, Insta etc for news; posting announcements there will still have value.
StephaneWithAnE@GWillow I agree with you overall, but the situation could shift a lot faster in one direction as people are going to be fed up of relying on multiple platforms soon, while the "big" platforms are aggressively shoving ads and monetization in their face. I'm hoping that in 1-2 years, Mastodon will have greatly evolved to enable rich federations of interconnected social networks.
@GWillow Also, I told a friend recently that a lot of people will realize within 2 years that supporting Twitter was a mistake because of the collateral damage it caused. A bit like the influence of the GOP on US politics over the past 10-20 years.