Kevin WalzJust took a first quick look at the new Episodes of Regime Transformation Data, now also including data on 2022 (R-Package: https://github.com/vdeminstitute/ERT) this morning.
As you can see Autocratization is still underway.
@politicalscience
What is new in comparison to last year?
First, the U.S. is for the first time in history "officially" in an autocratization episode. The outcome is censored, as the episode is ongoing.
Second, quite "prominent" autocratization episodes, like in Brazil, Poland, or Hungary are still ongoin. For example, Poland is approaching the point where we can no longer classify it as an electoral democracy, but as an electoral autocracy.
Third, there are some cases, like for example Greece or Austria, which might be in in danger of an emerging autocratization episode.
Interesting btw, to compare the graphs of the U.S. and Greece. We should keep in mind that the operationalization of the ERT is far from perfect, and we should be careful to blindly follow the classifications.
Finally, there are also some cases which can give hope regarding Democratic Resilience. For example, the autocratization episode in Slovenia has officially been interrupted.
@politicalscience
Addition: Also very interesting, that in the new version of the ERT, we do not find an autocratization episode in Czechia during the 2010s anymore. The score of Electoral Democracy in 2022 obviously is a game changer. This must be due to the interaction of the five parameters for operationalizing episodes. We should be very careful when dealing with contemporary cases, as the classifications of the ERT can vary from year to year.
Addition: Also very interesting, that in the new version of the ERT, we do not find an autocratization episode in Czechia during the 2010s anymore. The score of Electoral Democracy in 2022 obviously is a game changer. This must be due to the interaction of the five parameters for operationalizing episodes. We should be very careful when dealing with contemporary cases, as the classifications of the ERT can vary from year to year.