Prediction for Twitter's demise:
1. Twitter gets harder to maintain
2. Outages increase from once a week to near daily
3. Elon Musk pronounces that Twitter's old code is a mess that can't be saved, and he promises Twitter 3.0 -- which will be better in all ways from the old Twitter
4. A year later, Twitter 3.0 is released, and it's not like "real" Twitter -- but it's a pay-to-play platform
5. People finally realize "old" Twitter is not coming back, and go elsewhere -- probably to Mastodon
Why do I believe Twitter's demise will follow the above playbook?
Because I've seen this happen before.
The most infamous example is Digg.
In that example, Digg's demise meant Reddit's ascendancy.
There's three factors at play in Twitter's demise:
1. Unmaintainable code and architecture
2. Pressure to monetize
3. A competitor that can't be copied
I bet you that when Twitter 3.0 inevitably gets released, it will come with much fanfare.
At last! Elon Musk is fixing all of Twitter's problems!
They have signed longterm deals with Disney, News Corp, and Hearst!
Omnicom is an excited partner!
...and then people will actually use Twitter 3.0.
Chris Trottier
Adam Dalliance