E.W. NiedermeyerFeb 27, 2023

The speed with which Waymo is standing up driverless operations in San Francisco and LA definitely disproves the theory that they would be stuck in "easy mode" because they started in Phoenix.

The only problem is that the operations they are scaling aren't profitable. That's the hurdle that counts in robotaxis now.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2023/02/27/exclusive-waymos-la-robotaxi-fleet-is-going-fully-driverless/

Waymo’s L.A. Robotaxi Fleet Is Going Fully Driverless

Alphabet Inc.’s multibillion-dollar bet on self-driving cars and trucks isn’t ready to launch any paid rides yet, though the second-biggest U.S. city will be its next commercial market after Phoenix and San Francisco.

Forbes
Show threadSifu Tweety Fish, cDcFeb 27, 2023
@niedermeyer I'm still not convinced they're going to be able to find an audience beyond a curious/touristy one given the constraints there will be on vehicle performance. But I'm wrong a lot, so who knows.
Show threadE.W. Niedermeyer
@sifutweety yeah, taxis are for sure not the easiest use case... but if you look at the labor market, the cost of ridehailing, the likelihood of ongoing inflationary pressures, there are some surprising tailwinds (which will probably bite more in trucking first anyway tho)
Feb 27, 2023 at 7:43pmWeb
Show threadSifu Tweety Fish, cDcFeb 27, 2023
@niedermeyer I do think LA is kind of a smartish market as far as that goes -- it's as ridehail-dependent as any major city, has good weather and nice wide roads. I'm surprised Waymo is first to it. But I still haven't seen the first-person report of somebody who is like "oh yeah I use waymo/cruise to get where I want to go, it's just so convenient". Again, maybe I missed it. But it seems like an important bar to clear!
Show threadE.W. NiedermeyerFeb 27, 2023
@sifutweety yep, my sense is that the current fad for "scaling" is about hitting arbitrary investor targets. I guess it's their money, but generally speaking it's a good idea to actually build something complete and profitable before scaling.
Show threadSifu Tweety Fish, cDcFeb 27, 2023
@niedermeyer yeah I think we've talked about this but it just seems so obvious that the scaling to new cities is about getting new rounds of curious early adopters rather than responding to market pressure. It seems like a dangerous spot to be in!