Alper Çuğun-Gscheidel

According to Adam Tooze’s #Chartbook the Russian economy is ticking along reasonably fine.

That would mean that we really are paying more for our gas and everything else just to make a small number of companies richer?

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-195-how-to-pay-for-putins

Chartbook #195: How to pay for Putin's war?Russia's technocrats torn between defense of the austerity status quo and national mobilization.

It is clear that the Russian economy emerged from the first shock of the war and sanctions in 2022 far better than many expected. The official data show a fall in 2022 of just over 2 percent and a prediction for at least some economic growth in 2023, no worse than that expected for Germany and better than the outlook for Britain.

Chartbook
Feb 15, 2023 at 5:33pmWeb
Show threadHilko BengenFeb 15, 2023

@alper As expected, the argument revolves around the gross domestic product. As far as I know, the GDP includes the war economy, though the war effort and any production that has gone up (shells, drones, etc.) does not contribute to wealth creation at all.

There is some talk about the effect of forced import substitution after sanctions were applied, but I do not see any numbers or arguments to compensate for any production that has gone up to replace spent equipment.

Am I missing anything?

Show threadAlper Çuğun-GscheidelFeb 21, 2023
@hillu Of course it includes the war economy… and it’s not as if Russia was particularly interested in widespread wealth creation before.
Show threadHilko BengenFeb 21, 2023
@alper Right. There was interest in wealth creation, only not for just everybody.
But with all the blabbering about "Russian GDP has only shrunk X over the last year – clearly sanctions ain't working", I'd really like a somewhat more nuanced picture, e.g. which sectors have shrunk or grown by how much.